The horse racing Triple Crown of the USA, is one of the most elusive championships in all of sports.
From 1875 through to 2023, in other words during the years that all three races have been in existence simultaneously, only 13 thoroughbreds have been able to prevail in the Triple Crown.
And the question that many racing fans are asking at the moment is: what are the future prospects for this most glorious of racing crowns?
The Triple Crown has been won through the years, by 13 fantastic three year-old horses.
They have been victorious in all three legs: The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, The Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore and The Belmont Stakes in the New York area (normally Belmont Park, but will be run at Saratoga 2024 and 2025).
The legendary names are:
Sir Barton (1919), Gallant Fox (1930), Omaha (1935), War Admiral (1937), Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), Citation (1948), Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), Affirmed (1978), American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018).
To be fair to some of the top horses that have competed in the Triple Crown in the years long gone by, there have been some years with no practical chance for the best horse in the crop, to win the coveted championship.
In 1890 for example, the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes were run on the same day. And the Preakness had a break (no race being run) between 1891 and 1893. In 1911 and 1912, the New York governor Charles Evans Hughes banned racing in the state.
Also, in 1917 and 1922, the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes were run on the same day. And there have been (just a few) other years historically, when winning the Triple Crown has been theoretically impossible, for different reasons.
But even then, there is a huge noticeable gap in time between the 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed and the only two winners since, American Pharoah 2015 and Justify in 2018.
Justify though (trained by controversy-shrouded Bob Baffert, just like American Pharoah), did fail a drugs test for scopolamine, a banned substance that can enhance performance. This whilst winning the Santa Anita Derby, to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. This incident, and it’s very lenient handling by the California Horse Racing Board, is still very controversial in some quarters today.
Nevertheless: Is there still a reason to believe that winning the Triple Crown is an achievable aim, from a horse trainers point of view – and from the point of view, of the well being of the horses as well?
This is up for debate, currently, and has been for some time. The debate itself is not new, but big news around this could come later this year, possibly with history defining changes for the American racing schedule, as soon as 2025 or 2026.
The current Triple Crown-set up means that connections that are aspiring to win the Triple Crown, need to have a horse that can run three races against the best animals in their crop, over three different distances and on three different tracks… and all of this in a five week timespan.
Many voices have been heard around the future of the Triple Crown. Trainer Claude “Shug” McGaughey who won the Belmont with Easy Goer in 1989 and the Kentucky Derby with Orb in 2013, is in his seventies and very much a traditionalist. But he expressed during a teleconference with racing media, around the time of last years Kentucky Derby (in May), that:
“I did see a format presented the other day on Twitter or something where they ran the Derby first, then in July they ran the Preakness and then in October they ran the Belmont. I didn’t think it was that bad of an idea”.
Top trainer Steve Asmussen, who trained the legendary horse Curlin, is also a traditionalist. And in a perfect world, he would perhaps like things to stay as they are. But Asmussen says it’s not really a call for the trainers themselves to make:
“As trainers we focus on the horses that are in our care. I do believe that there are positives and negatives to both sides (of the Triple Crown debate)”.
This discussion had been reginited in 2022, when 80-1 longshot Rich Strike won the Kentucky Derby having slipped into the 20-horse field only as a reserve starter. But Rick Dawson, the owner of the horse, thought it would be unfair for the colt to race again just two weeks later in the Preakness, and just opted for the start in the Belmont Stakes (five weeks later).
Mage, the winner of the 2023 Kentucky Derby the next year did start in the Preakness Stakes and finished third, but did not race in the Belmont.
Since the “Rich Strike dropout”, there have been renewed cries for a Triple Crown-timeline that will see more Kentucky Derby winners going for the last two legs of the Triple Crown as well.
But if there is to be a change perhaps the most likely first course of action is that the second leg of the Triple Crown, The Preakness Stakes, will take place four weeks after the Kentucky Derby. Instead of just two. This should in turn force the Belmont Stakes to be moved forward in time.
A hint about this came in August last year, when Aidan Butler, CEO of the organization that owns and runs the Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore, the Preakness Stakes venue said:
“Discussion around spacing out the schedule of the Triple Crown is nothing new, and we believe the time has come to advance those discussions to the next step.”
Butler, the CEO of 1/ST Racing, continued:
“Allowing additional time between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes would give horses a greater opportunity to prepare and be ready between the Derby and the second leg of the Triple Crown”.
Butler was careful to add, though, that “The future of the Triple Crown is best decided collectively”.
As things stand the 150th renewal of the Kentucky Derby, the “Run For The Roses” or the “Greatest Two Minutes In Sports” will take place on May 4, 2024. And the 2024 Preakness Stakes will be run two weeks later, on May 18. All in line with the traditional, tight Triple Crown Schedule. The 2024 Belmont Stakes will take place on Saratoga Racecourse on June 8.
Everything, thus, according to the old five week span.
But the way things are sounding at the moment, we can not at all rule out a Triple Crown schedule change for 2025. Yes, admittedly, most people in American racing do not want to see a Triple Crown champion crowned every year – or every other year.
But the Kentucky Derby winner not being entered at all for the Preakness Stakes – and connections not attempting to take a shot at all three Triple Crown races – is for many an even worse alternative to contemplate.
Finally: what are the odds of us seeing a Triple Crown winner in 2024?
Well, that is written in the stars, of course. But since winning the Kentucky Derby is a prerequisite “must-start” in order to achieve this, Risen Star Stakes winner Sierra Leone currently looks like a decent bet.. And probably a likely Kentucky Derby-favourite this year. Even though he lost to Dornoch in the Ramsen Stakes at Aqueduct, and the latter is of course also in with a shout. Timberlake was very impressive though, in the Arkansas Derby prep race, The Rebel Stakes. Deterministic, Fierceness, Forever Young and Track Phantom have all shown bags of promise as well.
Source: cryptobetting.com
