It’s Derby Day at Epsom Racecourse this weekend and like every Saturday we’ve got all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our free tips on each contest.
Supporting the big race, we’ve got four more LIVE races to take in that include the Epsom Dash, which is run over one of the quickest 5f courses in the world – blink and you’ll miss it!
Here at Racing Ahead we’ve got all the main trends and stats to help you find the best profiles of past winners of the LIVE ITV Epsom races.
EPSOM Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
12:50 – BETFRED Diomed Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m 114y ITV
19/19 – Had won over at least a mile before
17/19 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
17/19 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
16/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
16/19 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
15/19 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
14/19 – Had won at least 4 times before
14/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Aged 5 or older
12/19 – Had raced at Epsom before
9/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/19 – Ridden by William Buick
2/19 – Trained by the Crisford stable
1.30 – Betfred Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y ITV
Epsom Derby Betting Trends and Stats
20/21 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
19/21 – Raced no more than 5 times before
19/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
17/21 – Had won a Group race before
17/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/21 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
14/21 – Won last time out
13/21 – Won from a single-figure stall
13/21 – Favourites that were placed
12/21 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
10/21 – Irish-trained winners
8/21 – Had won a Group One before
7/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 8 in all)
7/21 – Won by the favourite
5/21 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
5/21 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
5/21 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
4/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
2/21 – Won over 1m4f before
1/21 – Winners from stall 1 (Adayar)
0/21 – Run at the course before
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 8/1
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 7-12 (5 of the last 10 from stalls 10 (2) or 12 (3))
11 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Desert Crown (2022) & Golden Horn (2015) being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby
Epsom Derby Trainer Stats
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2022, 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2020
2.10 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m114y ITV4
20/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
19/20 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
17/20 – Favourites placed
16/20 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
16/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/20 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6, 7 or 8
15/20 – Had won over at least a mile before
15/20 – Finished in the top three last time out
15/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/20 – Had won between 4-6 times before
12/20 – Aged 4 years-old
11/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – Had raced at Epsom before
9/20 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
8/20 – Won last time out
7/20 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/20 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/20 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/20 – Trained by the Channon yard
2/20 – Trained by Roger Charlton
Jockeys Tom Marquand (2), James Doyle (3) and Frankie Dettori (3) have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
Godolphin have won 4 of the last 13 runnings
The last 10 winners were drawn 8 or lower (7 of the last 10 drawn 5 or lower)
2.45 Aston Martin 3YO “Dash” Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 5f ITV4
No previous runnings
Trainer Andrew Balding has a 23% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian is 0 from 15 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Oisin Murphy has a 21% strike-rate riding 3 year-olds at the track
3.20 – Aston Martin “Dash” (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV
Epsom Dash Betting Trends and Stats
18/20 – Didn’t win last time out
18/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks (13 within the last 4 weeks)
16/20– Unplaced favourites
15/20 – Won by horses aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
15/20 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
15/20 – Came from stall 8 or higher
13/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/20 – Had raced at Epsom previously (5 had won)
5/20 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame
1/20 – Winning favourites
Mokaatil won the race in 2021
3.55 – Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap Cl2 1m2f18y ITV4
20/20 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
18/20 – Had won over 1m before (6 over 1m2f)
17/20 – Never run at Epsom before
14/20 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
13/20 – Placed last time out
12/20 – Carried 8-10 or more
11/20 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/20 – Favourites that were placed
8/20 – Horses placed from stall 1
6/19 – Won their previous race
3/20 – Winners from stall 1
3/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/20 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
3/20 – Won by trainer Sylvester Kirk
3/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 5)
Stall 2 has just 3 places (1 win) to its name in the last 20 runnings
4:30 Rio Ferdinand Foundation Northern Dancer Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4
9/9 – Aged 6 or younger
8/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
2/9 – Trained by Alan King (last 2)
2/9 – Ridden by William Buick (last 2)
2/9 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
2/9 – Winning favourites
5:05 JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4
9/9 – Drawn in stalls 4 or higher
7/9 – Drawn between stalls 4 and 10
7/9 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
7/9 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
3/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by John Spearing
2/9 – Ridden by Jason Hart (2 of the last 5)
2/9 – Trained by John Quinn (2 of the last 5)
2/9 – Trained by Ian Williams (2 of the last 4)
Mr Wagyu won the race last year
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