With the Cheltenham Festival looming it’s no surprise the quality of the weekend racing takes a slight dip over the next few weekends. That said, we’ve still plenty of action to enjoy as the ITV cameras head to Newbury to take in two races, with the Greatwood Gold Cup their feature race – a contest the powerful Paul Nicholls yard have won in 7 of the last 12 runnings.
We’ve also got three races at Doncaster with the Grimthorpe Chase the main event – 14 of the last 18 winners were aged 9 or older and carried 10-13 or less in weight, so these two trends are certainly worth having on your side.
The cameras are also at Kelso for four races – the Grade Two bet365 Premier Kelso Hurdle – with 12 of the last 14 winners placed in the top four last time out, this is a key trend to have on side.
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!
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2.10 – BetVictor Non-Runner-No-Bet Cheltenham Seniors’ Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (8yo+ 0-130) 2m 4 1/2f ITV
5/6 – Aged 8 yearas-old
5/6 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
4/6 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
4/6 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
1/6 – Winning favourites
Bold Plan won the race in 2022
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 10/1
2.45 – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV
16/18 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
16/18 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
16/18 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
15/18 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
15/18 – Won over this trip (2m4f) previously (or further)
14/18 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
13/18 – Officially rated 139 or higher
13/18 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
11/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
11/18 – Favourites placed
9/18 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
9/18 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
8/18 – Won by a French-bred horse
8/18 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/18 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/18 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/18 – Favourites to win (1 joint)
3/18 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
3/18 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/18 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1
Paint The Dream won the race in 2022
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat
1.30 – Virgin Bet Cheltenham Festival Money Back Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV
11/11 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
7/11 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
6/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
4/11 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
3/11 – Ridding by a claiming jockey
3/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Trained by Brian Ellison
8 of the last 10 winners carried 10st 11lbs or more
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/2
3.15 – Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f ITV
17/18 – Aged 8 or older
17/18 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
15/18 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
15/18 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
14/18 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
13/18 – Aged 9 or older
12/18 – From the top 3 in the betting
12/18 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Rated 132 or less
10/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
7/18 – Won their last race
4/18 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/18 – Winning Favourites
8 year-olds have won 3 of the last 8 runnings
Undersupervision (9/2) won the race last year
The average wining SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1
1.15 – bet365 Cyril Alexander Memorial Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-135) 2m5 1/2f ITV
No previous runnings
Trainer Warren Greatrex has a 40% record with their chasers at the track
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 29% record with their chasers at the track
Trainer Iain Jardine has a 28% record with their chasers at the track
Trainer Sandy Thomson has a 25% record with their chasers at the track
Jockey Ryan Mania has a 29% record riding over fences at the track
Jockey Sean Quinlan has a 21% record riding over fences at the track
1.50 – bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV
11/11 – Had run in the last 3 months
10/11 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/11 – Never run at the track before
9/11 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
7/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/11 – Rated between 138-146
6/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/11– Ridden by Brian Hughes
2/11 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/11 – Trained by Nicky Richards
Cormier (8/1) won the race last year
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/4
2.25 – bet365 Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV
13/14 – Aged 7 or younger
13/14 – Favourites placed in the top three
12/14 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
12/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
8/14 – Won last time out
8/14 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/14 – Had raced at Kelso before
6/14 – Irish bred
4/14 – Winning favourite
3/14– Ran at Musselburgh last time out
2/14 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1
3.00 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV
Just 2 previous runnings
Paul Nicholls trained the winner in 2021 (Flash Collonges)
Nicky Richards trained the winner in 2022 (Famous Bridge)
Trainer Dr Richard Newland has a 33% record with their hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 19% record with their hurdlers at the track
Trainer Sandy Thomson has a 18% record with their hurdlers at the track
Jockey Henry Brooke is only 1 from 56 riding over hurdles at the track
3.35 – bet365 Premier Chase (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m 7 1/2f) ITV
8/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Didn’t win last time out
7/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
7/9 – Had run at the course before
7/9 – Aged 9 or older
6/9 – Placed 4th or better last time out
6/9 – Won over 3m plus in the past
6/9 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
5/9 – Irish bred
4/9 – Rated between 132-140 (inc)
3/9 – Ran at Haydock last time out
4/9 – Won by jockey Brian Hughes
3/9 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1
