Plenty more Cheltenham Festival clues on offer this Saturday as the ITV cameras head to both Newbury and Warwick to take in seven races across the two venues.
At Newbury the Denman Chase, Betfair Hurdle and Betfair Exchange Chase are the standout contests – In the last 19 runnings of the Denman Chase we’ve seen 8 winning favourites, while ALL of the last 20 Betfair Hurdle winners carried 11st 8lbs or less in weight.
Then up at Warwick, we’ve three more LIVE ITV races, including the Grade Two Kingmaker Novices’ Chase one of the features – a race that gives us a chance to see some of the potential stars of the future.
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!
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NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.50 – Betfair Multiple Offer Every Saturday Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m52y ITV4
16/17 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
15/17 – Had run within the last 10 weeks
13/17 – Aged 7 or younger
12/17 – Carried 10-13 or more
12/17 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
12/17 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
10/17 – Unplaced last time out10/17 – Carried 11-0 or more
9/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/17 – Aged 7 years-old
6/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/17 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (no winners)
3/17 – French bred
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Raced at Haydock last time out
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
The Brimming Water (5/1) won the race in 2022
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1
2.25 – Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4
16/19 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
16/19 – Rated 150+
15/19 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
14/19 – Placed favourites
14/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/19 – Aged 8 or younger
11/19 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
11/19 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
11/19 – Raced at either Cheltenham or Kempton last time out
8/19 – Won last time out
8/19 – Winning favourites
8/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (10 wins in total)
7/19 – Irish bred
7/19 – French bred
6/19 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
4/19 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
4/19 – Returned a double-figure price
4/19 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/19 – Won by the Pipe stable
7 of the last 16 winners were aged 7 years-old
The average SP in the last 15 runnings is 7/2
3.00 – Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV4
17/17 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Placed favourites
14/17 – Aged 8 or younger
14/17 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
13/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
12/17 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
10/17 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
10/17 – Winning favourites
10/17 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (6 winners)
9/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – French bred
6/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/17 – Ran at Sandown last time out
5/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/17 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
Fumambule Sivola (9/4) won the race in 2022
Note: The 2019 running was staged at Ascot
3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4
20/20 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
19/20 – Aged 7 or younger
18/20 – Rated 130 or higher
17/20 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
17/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
16/20 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
16/20 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
16/20 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
15/20 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
15/20 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
13/20 – Placed favourites
11/20 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
10/20 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
10/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/20 – Irish bred
8/20 – Won last time out
8/20 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 16)
7/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/20 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/20 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 9)
2/20 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2 of the last 13)
2/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 10)
2/20 – Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/20 – Owned by JP McManus
1/20 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
25 of the last 26 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 14/1
1.30 – Virgin Bet Warwick Castle Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4f ITV4
12/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/12 – Irish (5) or French (7) bred
10/12 – Aged 9 or younger
10/12 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
10/12 – Favourites that finished in the top three
9/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
8/12 – Unplaced in their last race
9/12 – Had won over at least 2m3f (fences) before
5/12 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/12 – Ridden by David Bass
7 of the last 9 winners carried 10st 10lbs or more
Celebre D’Allen (5/2 jfav) won the race in 2022
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1
2.05 – Virgin Bet Odds Daily Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4
Just 8 previous running
8/8 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
8/8 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
7/8 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
6/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
5/8 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
4/8 – Rated between 140 and 149
4/8 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
4/8 – Winning favourites
4/8 – Irish bred
4/8 – Had run at Warwick before
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 8 runnings
Marie’s Rock (6/4 jfav) won the race in 2022
Molly Ollys Wishes (7/2) won the race in 2021
Indefatigable (7/2 cfav) won the race in 2020
2.40 – Virgin Bet Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4
10/11 – Aged 7 or younger
10/11 – Won over 2m fences before
9/11 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
9/11 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
7/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Rated between 137-147
6/11 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
6/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Unplaced favs
4 of the last 7 winners have been 6 year-olds
Edwardstone (10/11 fav) won the race in 2022
Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown
