Each day of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival here at RACING AHEAD we’ll give you the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
Did you know – 11 of the last 16 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle winners won last time out?
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival for you……………………………………
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CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY THREE:
Thursday 17th March (New Course)
Cheltenham Festival Trends
1.30 – Turners Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m 3f 166y ITV
2021 Winner: CHANTRY HOUSE (9/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
Pluses….
- 9 of the 11 winners were Irish-trained
- 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
- Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 11 winners
- 8 of the last 11 winners had won a Graded Chase before
- 10 of the last 11 winners ran in a Graded Novice Chase last time
- 8 of the last 11 winners won a Graded Novice Chase last time
- 8 of the last 11 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
- 9 of the last 11 past winners had run at the Festival before (5 had won)
- 10 of the 11 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
- 8 of the last 11 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
- 10 of the last 11 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 9 of the last 11 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 11 winners returned 4/1 or shorter
- 3 outright winning favourites in the last 7 runnings
- 8 of the last 11 winners won last time out
- 10 of the last 11 winners French (4) or Irish (6) bred
- 5 of the last 11 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
- 6 of the last 11 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
- 7 year-olds have won 7 of last 11 renewals
- 6 of the last 7 winners rated 151+
- 3 of the last 11 winners owned by Gigginstown House Stud
- Gordon Elliott is 2 from 4
- McManus has owned 2 of the last 3 winners
Negatives….
- Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
- Just 3 British-trained winners so far (0-9)
- The top-rated horse is just 1 from 11
- Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
- 4 winning favourites in 11 runnings (1 co)
- 5 year-olds are 0-from-6
- Just 1 of the last 11 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
- Just 2 winners had been off for more than 54 days
VERDICT: Just the four runners, which is a shame and really this looks a shootout between just two – Bob Olinger and GALOPIN DES CHAMPS. The pair are rated 161 and 164, while both have unbeaten (2-from-2) winning profiles to their names over fences. Add in that they are both course winner and both Festival heroes too – Bob won the Ballymore last year and Galopin the Martin Pipe, so they’ve got experience of this huge meeting too. However, I’ve been a tad more impressed with the Willie Mullins runner – Galopin Des Champs after his 9 lengths win at Leopardstown last month in the Ladbrokes Novices’ Chase. He jumped well that day and having won over further too can be expected to make full use of that stamina. El Barra and Busselton make up the four but will really be playing for minor prize money.
2.10 – Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f 213y ITV
2021 Winner: MRS MILNER (12/1)
Trainer – Paul Nolan
Jockey – BJ Cooper
Pluses….
- 9 of the last 12 winners started their careers in bumpers (6) or points (2)
- Irish have won the last 6 runnings
- Last 10 winners aged 8 or younger
- Last 6 winners trained in Ireland
- Sire Du Berlais has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
- 9 of the last 14 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
- 10 of the last 21 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
- 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 138 or higher
- 10 of the last 15 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
- 9 of the last 11 winners were rated between 138-148
- 10 of the last 17 winners had won over at least 2m7f
- 9 of the last 10 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
- 6 of the last 9 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
- 7 of the last 8 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 21 winners won their last race
- 5 of the last 6 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
- 3 of the last 13 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
- Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
- Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
- Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 4 runnings
- Jockey Davy Russell has ridden 3 of the last 6 winners
- Respect horses with headgear (7 since 2000)
Negatives….
- Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
- Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
- Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
- 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
- Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
- Only 2 winning favourites in last 16 years
- Just 1 winner in the last 39 aged 10+
- Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 19 (One third and two 2nds in the last 8 runnings)
- Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 47
VERDICT: Sire Du Berlais has won this race twice in the past before and is back for more off just a 4lbs higher mark. Connections are putting up a 7lbs claimer to help with the big weight 11-12, but he’s only had 8 career rides and that would be a worry in a race like this with 20+ runners. His trainer – Gordon Elliott – has also won 3 of the last 4 renewals so his other runners – Dunboyne, Folcano, Tullybeg, Dallas Des Pictons, Sassy Yet Classy command respect. All of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or younger too, so this is certainly a trend to have on your side. This will knock plenty out too. Winter Fog ticks a lot of boxes and Paul Townend is in the plate. But the main call is ALAPHILIPPE. This Fergal O’Brien runner was a decent fifth last time at Warwick in a qualifier for this race and that also came off a 302-day break. He ran well up until the final few furlongs, but the slightly shorter trip here and the fact he should be fitter for that outing are pluses. Despite not ticking the age trend, the Twiston-Davies runner – BALLYANDY (e/w) – has been sparked back to life in recent runs – winning twice – and he’s a past festival winner when taking the Champion Bumper in 2016. His overall record at Cheltenham is decent and the useful Finn Lambert take off a handy 10lbs from the saddle again. Of the rest, it’s interesting that Davy Russell is getting the leg-up on Elliott’s SASSY YET CLASSY (e/w). This 8 year-old ticks most of the main trends and has been placed in the top three in 8 of her 17 runs over hurdles – and, as mentioned, her yard have a top record in this race.
2.40 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV
2021 Winner: ALLAHO (3/1 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
Pluses….
- 13 of the 17 winners had won at Cheltenham before
- 7 of the last 9 winners were 2nd season chasers
- All 14 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
- 10 of the last 14 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
- 11 of the last 14 had won or placed at the Festival before
- The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 28)
- The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
- 14 of the last 17 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
- 13 of the last 14 winners were rated 161+
- 4 of the last 17 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
- 13 of last 17 winners were fav or 2nd fav
- 10 of the last 14 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 15 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
- Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
- Respect first time headgear (3 from 10)
- 9 of the last 14 winners DIDN’T win last time out
- Last 8 winners were French-bred
- All winners ran 4 or less times that season
- 4 of the last 6 winners trained by Willie Mullins
Negatives….
- The Irish are 5 from 62 runners in this race
- Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
- No winner aged 11 or older
- Just one winner rated 160 or below
- Just 5 of the last 14 won last time out
- No winner was having their Festival debut
VERDICT: Another of the so-called Festival Bankers in as the Willie Mullins-trained ALLAHO is expected to be hard to beat here. He bolted up in the race 12 months ago and more of the same looks on the cards. He’s returned this season to win well at Punchestown and Thurles and has now won 50% of his 10 chase starts. At the age of 8 there should be a lot more to come and he can follow in the hoofprints of Albertas Run, who win this race in back-to-back years in the past. Of the rest, with Mullins having won 4 of the last 6 then MELON (e/w) is the other pick of those at bigger prices. He’s has been consistent at past festivals finishing placed in a Supreme Novices Hurdle and the Champion Hurdle. Other dangers include the Irish Gold Cup hero Conflated and Shan Blue, who was sure to have won the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby back in October, but for falling at the 3rd last fence – connections have given him plenty of time to recover.
3.30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV
2021 Winner: FLOORING PORTER (12/1)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Danny Mullins
Pluses….
- 13 of the last 17 won last time out
- 7 of the last 8 winners were second season hurdlers
- 29 of the last 32 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
- 17 of the last 21 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
- 8 of the last 20 were French Bred
- Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
- 8 of the last 15 ran in the Cleeve Hurdle
- 19 of the last 22 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
- 13 of the last 17 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
- Respect past winners of the race
- 16 of the last 25 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
- 3 of the last 4 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
Negatives….
- Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
- A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
- Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
- Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
- Avoid front runners
- The Irish are have won the race just 4 times since 1995
- Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
- Previous Albert Bartlett winners have an overall poor record (1 from 16), but horses that ran in the race have won the last 3
- Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 71
- Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 59)
VERDICT: Flooring Porter ran them a merry dance from the front in this race 12 months ago and is back for more. However, last year’s champ hasn’t won a race since so that would be the worry (3 runs). That said, he’s still run well this season and is a consistent sort that is sure to be involved. Lisnagar Oscar is another past winner in the race in 2020 but is another that’s also not won a race since. Paisley Park is the third past winner in the race (2019) and was billed as the sort to mop up 2 or 3 more of these races, but didn’t He bounced back to form last time though in the Cleeve Hurdle here after fluffing the start too – he beat Champ by 3 ¼ lengths that day – and if in that mood again (with a better start) has to be considered. Klassical Dream is another past Festival winner (Supreme, 2019) and has had a resurgence this season and beat Flooring Porter by 2 lengths at Leopardstown back in December. However, he was turned over last time by ROYAL KAHALA at Gowran Park and this improving staying mare looks interesting. She gets the handy 7lbs allowance too and has only been out of the first two over hurdles once from 7 starts. Of the others, Champ has to be respected too being a past Festival winner and Song For Someone could easily outrun his big odds. But the other main pick is THYME HILL. This Philip Hobbs runner has won 5 of his 9 starts over hurdles and only been out the first three twice. His form at Cheltenham is not too shabby either 2-3-1-4 and warmed up for this with a fair second in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot. He’s been kept fresh since, but is a horse that’s gone well off a break in the past.
4.10 – Paddy Power Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) 2m 4f 166y ITV
2021 Winner: THE SHUNTER (9/4 fav)
Trainer – Emmet Mullins
Jockey – Jordan Gainford
Pluses….
- 28 of the last 34 winners were officially rated 140 or less
- 11 of the last 13 winners carried under 11-0
- Look out for French-breds
- 13 of the last 17 winners had run from 25th Jan onwards
- 11 of the last 18 winners had won a race in Feb or March
- Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
- The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 24 runnings
- 16 of the last 21 winners returned at double-figure odds
- 21 of the last 30 winners had run at the Festival before (but 8 of last 11 were having Festival debut)
- 21 of the last 22 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
- 9 of the last 12 winners had 9 or less chase runs
- 17 of the last 22 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
- The last 6 winners were novices or second season chasers
- 16 of the last 18 winners had raced that calendar year
Negatives….
- Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
- The Irish have only sent out 5 winners since 1951
- Only 2 of the last 18 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
- 4 winning favourites in the last 16 years
- Only 4 of last 27 won with 11st+
- Winners of a chase at Cheltenham before have an overall poor record, but the 2019 and 2020 winners did defy this trend.
- Only 2 of the last 18 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
4.50 – Mares’ (Dawn Run) Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y ITV
2021 Winner: TELLMESOMETHINGGIRL
Trainer – Henry de Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
Pluses….
- A new race (Just 6 renewals)
- All 6 winners trained in Ireland
- Favourites have won 3 of the 6 runnings
- 3 of the last 6 winners won last time out
- 4 of the 6 winners were French-bred
- 4 of the last 6 winners were top or 2nd top rated
- 5 of the last 6 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
- 5 of the last 6 past winners started their careers in France
- 3 of the 6 winners were unbeaten that season
- Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 6 runnings (just 4 runners)
- 4 of the 6 winners have been aged 5 years-old
- Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
- Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Negatives….
- Irish bred mares are just 2-from-45
- British trained runners are 0-from-43
- British bred mares are 0-from-17
- Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-8
- JP McManus owned are 0-from-7
- 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-16
VERDICT: A wide op renewal, but it’s hard to get away from the cracking Willie Mullins record in this race – he’s one it 5 times in the last 6. He’s got Braganza, Hors Piste, Heig, Grangee, Brandy Love and DINOBLUE in the race. The last three-named look his best chance and it’s the once-raced Dinoblue that’s been well touted for this after an easy 15 length win at Clonmel in January. She’s had a few months off since with connections keen to freshen her up for this and looks the sort to have plenty of scope for improvement. Brandy Love is sure to be popular too with some solid runs to her name, while the Elliott yard will be trying to upset the Mullins army with Party Central, who was a tidy winner at the Dublin Racing Festival last time out. The British challenge is headed by Love Envoi and Nurse Susan, but the already mentioned other Mullins runner – GRANGEE – is the other pick. She fell last time out at Fairyhouse, but was still in with a shout that day and before that had run close in the G1 Future Champions Novices’ Hurdle at Leopardstown. With 8 runs she’s one of the more experienced in the field and Patrick Mullins, who has already been on the score sheet this week, is in the saddle.
5.30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV
2021 Winner: MOUNT IDA (3/1 fav)
Trainer – Denise Foster
Jockey – Jack Kennedy
Pluses….
- Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
- 11 of the last 14 winners failed to win earlier that season
- The last 10 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
- 9 of the last 12 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
- 9 of the last 12 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
9 of the last 13 winners ran in February - Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
- Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
- 18 of the last 22 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
- Look for non-claiming amateur riders
- 10 of the last 11 winners wore headgear
- 11 of the last 13 winners came from the top 6 in the market
- Jockey Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 13 winners
- Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019
- Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (3 of the last 10)
- 18 of the last 19 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Negatives….
- Just 5 Irish winners in last 38 years (but have won 5 of the last 8)
- Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
- Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 23
- Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
- Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
- French breds are 0 from 68 since 2005
- Avoid claiming jockeys – 2 from 96 since 2009
- Just 1 of the last 19 winners won last time out
VERDICT: Frontal Assault, who was 8th in the Martin Pipe Hurdle last season, will be popular for trainer Gordon Elliott here, but might not be much value in the betting. Generally, in this amateur riders’ races the better and more experienced jockeys are key, so the Derek O’Conner (School Boy Hours), Sam Waley-Cohen (Mister Coffey), Jamie Codd (Smoking Gun) and Patrick Mullins (Mister Fogpatches) entries tick this box. Of that bunch it’s SMOKING GUN and MISTER FOGPATCHES that are of most interest. The former was third at Fairyhouse last time out also has festival experience when 5th in the NH Chase in 2000. He was only 7 back then so will be a lot wiser this time and the shorter trip is a positive but has proved he can stay too – winning over 3m5f this season in Ireland. Mister Fogpatches is a consistent stayer and despite only having one chase win to his name (12 runs) has been in the top three 8 times. He was also a fine second at Cheltenham at their December meeting and is only a pound higher for that. Of the rest, Ain’t That A Shame, Cat Tiger and Omar Maretti are others to note at bigger prices.
