This week I would like to move away from ‘trends’ and take a look at another way of making profits from horse racing…..
This is ratings.
So what are ratings?
Ratings are a set of criteria which are given a point’s score and these are given to each horse. At NWRacing we use two sets of ratings that cover all types of criteria.
Our ‘R2′ covers the following criteria…
Trainer Form
Race Distance
Horse Course Form
Going Conditions
Draw Bias (Flat Only)
Each of the above criteria is given a point’s score to help determine the strength of the ability of each horse, this will then help to guide us in what horses we should be looking at for win and lay purposes.
Simply backing our top R2 rating blindly gives our followers a 30% win strike rate. If following our top three rated that strike rate rises considerably. This means we can concentrate our efforts on out top rated horses for win purposes, and cuts down the time in finding a potential winner.
On the other side of the coin we can look at our bottom rated horses and look to ‘lay’ them.
Many horses (for lay purposes) are far to big a price to lay, of course the reason they are bottom of the ratings is because they have little or no chance of winning.
At NWRacing we use a simple method to find lay selections that produces good profits with a high strike rate.
NWRacing Lay Method
1) Bottom rated – Must be at least 5pts below ‘second bottom’ rated.
2) Must be bottom rated (not joint) on both R1 & R2 ratings.
3) Horse must be below 10.00 BSP (We suggest using a bot).
In 2015 this simple method has given us 21 selections (correct at 15/01)
ALL 21 selections have lost, however some have been big prices.
If using ‘Step 3′ of our method this reduces the results to three wins from three selections.
07/01/15 Taunt 3.10 Rothman 4th @ 6.6 BSP
10/01/15 Kemp 2.10 Fox Appeal 2nd @ 7.8 BSP
14/01/15 Newb 1.45 Mountain King 3rd @ 3.69 BSP
This is just one of many reasons why RATINGS can be a very useful tool when looking for winners or losers.
There are two possible qualifying selections today using the ‘lay’ criteria. Both selections are in small field races, and remember each horse is only a qualifier if the Betfair SP is under 10’0. A bot is recommended for this strategy.
1.15 Ascot – Clondaw Draft
3.50 Haydock – Uncle Tone
Have a great day.
Neil Stevens-Wood.
