Like every year we have to wait around 3 months for the final English Classic – the St Leger – but this gap between the five races does at least give these 3 year-olds the opportunity to race in the King George against the older horses in July, or at least strengthen-up a bit more before tackling this longer 1m6f trip in September.
Being first run in 1776 the St Leger is the oldest of the Classics and, therefore, steeped in history. In recent times the Triple Crown (2,000 Guineas, Epsom Derby & St Leger) was last landed by Nijinsky in 1970, but the Aidan O’Brien-trained Camelot in 2012 came close more recently after winning the Guineas and Derby before then going down ¾ of a length (2nd) in his Leger and Triple Crown bid.
Leading Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien does, however, have a cracking record in the contest – winning it four times, including 12 months ago with Leading Light. The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin are the other big operation to look for as they’ve been successful a staggering six times, while John Gosden has been responsible for four Leger winners during his career, including three of the last 7!
In the ‘punter v bookie’ battle this race has favoured the backers with 5 of the last 12 favourites winning and 9 of the last 12 also returning 8/1 or lower in the betting, while this is further backed-up with a staggering 10 of the last 12 market leaders hitting the frame.
By far the biggest ‘standout’ trend in recent years is that ALL of the last 12 winners were placed in the top 3 in their most recent race, while the same amount had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before.
Don’t be too put off if your fancy is yet to race over this 1m6f (or further) trip as 10 of the last 12 winners were trying this distance for the first time.
In terms of trials, or previous, races to look for then having run in either the Great Voltigeur (York) or the Gordon Stakes (Goodwood) is key with 9 of the last 12 St Leger winners running in one of those races before taking this, with 4 of the last 12 (2 each) winning one of those contests.
Despite being run over 1m6f the draw has played it’s part in recent runnings too with 8 of the last 12 winners coming from stalls 5 or higher, while we’ve seen just 1 winner from stall one take the prize – suggesting it’s hard to get a good early position, without using up valuable energy, from the lower berths.
Finally, heading into the race fit is another fairly obvious trend to note, but also coming here in-form is key. I’ve already mentioned that horses that were placed last time out are worth keeping on your side, but 7 of the last 12 actually won last time out, plus 9 of the last 12 winners headed to Doncaster with between 4 or 5 previous runs that season – again, backing-up the fitness and experience angle once more.
At the time of writing a lot can change between now and the race, but I hope these trends at least help whittle the field down a bit and at this stage the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Snow Sky, who landed this season’s Gordon Stakes, certainly ticks a lot of the key stats.
Enjoy!
Recent St Leger Winners
2013 – Leading Light (7/2 fav)
2012 – Encke (25/1)
2011 – Masked Marvel (15/2)
2010 – Arctic Cosmos (12/1)
2009 – Mastery (14/1)
2008 – Conduit (8/1)
2007 – Lucarno (7/2)
2006 – Sixties Icon (11/8 fav)
2005 – Scorpion (10/11 fav)
2004 – Rule of Law (3/1 jfav)
2003 – Brian Boru (5/4 fav)
2002 – Bollin Eric (7/1)
Key St Leger 12 Year Trends
12/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/12 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
10/12 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
10/12 – Placed favourites
10/12 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
9/12 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
9/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Had won a Group race before
9/12 – Officially rated 109 to 115
9/12 – Winning distance of 1 length or more
8/12 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
8/12 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
7/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (2 won it)
5/12 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/12 – USA-bred winners
3/12 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
3/12 – Trained by John Gosden
3/12 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3/12 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/12 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/12 – Ridden by William Buick
1/12 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won the race 6 times
Aidan O’Brien has trained 4 winners of the race
The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 7/1
