By Andy Newton
This month’s Aintree Grand National is a race that always grabs the nation, with seasoned racing fans and the ‘once a year’ punters heading down the bookies for a stab at finding the winner in the world’s greatest steeplechase.
So, with 40 runners expected to line-up then it’s always a race that can look daunting when it comes to unravelling the contenders, but not only is it a race steeped in history, it’s also a contest that has been great for the trend hunters.
Therefore, with that in mind it’s always a bit of fun to apply some of the key recent trends to the final runners when we get them a few days before and this will allow us to whittle down the field to a more sizeable number and hopefully give us the winner!
First up we really need to be looking for horses that come into the race off the back of a fairly recent run as ALL of the last 23 runners ran no more than 55 days ago, while if you want to take that stat a bit further then 18 of the last 23 ran no more than 34 days ago.
Look for horses that have previously won over 3miles (fences), but will probably apply to most of the field. In terms of age with 21 of the last 23 winners aged 9 or older then that’s another key trend that will knock a fair few out, while be very wary of any 7 year-olds – the last horse to win aged 7 was in 1940!
Being a handicap then weight carried is important – don’t forget they have to get around 4 ½ miles and this is backed up by the fact since 1977 109 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 and only Neptune Collonges, who won in 2012 with 11-6, has been successful.
Irish bred horses have a cracking recent record – winning 10 of the last 13 – while 6 of the last 23 winners came from an Irish-based yard.
There can often be a big betting plunge on the day – look at Seabass 12 months ago, who was backed into a very short 11/2 favourite. However, the race has only seen 5 winning favourites win in the last 23 years, but in contrast a bigger 13 of the last 23 market leaders were placed in the race.
With 18 of the last 23 winners returning a double-figure price then don’t be put off if you fancy something at a bigger price – last year we saw a 66/1 winner and there was, of course, Mon Mome, who won at 100/1 in 2009.
The final trend to note is to look for horses that have won no more than 6 times over fences as this trend has been responsible for 21 of the last23 winners, and 17 of those 23 had actually only won between 4-6 times before.
Anyway, we hope that’s helped and if anything it’s actually quite good fun to apply the best of those trends to the race and see which horses you are left with.
Recent Grand National Winners
2013 – Auroras Encore (66/1)
2012 – Neptune Collonges 33/1
2011 – Ballabriggs 14/1
2010 – Don’t Push It 10/1jfav
2009 – Mon Mome 100/1
2008 – Comply or Die 7/1 jfav
2007 – Silver Birch 33/1
2006 – Numbersixvalverde 11/1
2005 – Hedgehunter 7/1 fav
2004 – Amberleigh House 16/1
2003 – Monty’s Pass 16/1
2002 – Bindaree 20/1
2001 – Red Marauder 33/1
2000 – Papillon 10/1
1999 – Bobbyjo 10/1
1998 – Earth Summit 7/1 fav
1997 – Lord Gyllene 14/1
1996 – Rough Quest 7/1 fav
1995 – Royal Athlete 40/1
1994 – Miinnehoma 16/1
1993 – VOID RACE
1992 – Party Politics 14/1
1991 – Seagram 12/1
1990 – Mr Frisk 16/1
22 Year Trends (note 1993 was a void race)
23/23 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
22/23 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
22/23 – Officially rated 137 or higher
21/23 – Aged 9 or older
21/23 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
18/23 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS
18/23 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
18/23 – Returned a double-figure price
17/23 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
17/23 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
13/23 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/23 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
14/23 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
13/23 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
12/23 – Placed favourites
12/23 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/23 – Trained in Ireland (inc 4 of the last 8 years)
6/23 – Ran in a previous Grand National
7/23 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/23 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
4/23 – Won last time out
2/23 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/23 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
0/23 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS
Aintree Grand National Facts
- The last horse to win with more than 11-6 was Red Rum in 1977
- Since 1977, 109 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just one winner – Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
- 10 of the last 13 winners were bred in Ireland
- Only 1 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
- The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
- The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974
