Run over 1m4f the Bet365 Old Newton Cup is staged at Haydock racecourse.
This handicap race has seen 15 of the last 19 renewals being won by horses aged 5 or younger, while 13 of the last 19 winners carried 9-1 or less in weight.
Here at RACING AHEAD we give you all the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal, this year run on Saturday 3rd July.
Recent Old Newton Cup Winners
2020 – Deja (5/1)
2019 – Kelly’s Dino (14/1)
2018 – Rainbow Rebel (12/1)
2017 – Dylan Mouth (25/1)
2016 – Tawdeea (8/1)
2015 – Notarised (12/1)
2014 – De Rigueur (9/1)
2013 – Star Lahib (8/1)
2012 – Number Theory (8/1)
2011 – Halicarnassus (14/1)
2010 – Dangerous Midge (17/2)
2009 – Red Merlin (15/2 jfav)
2008 – Mad Rush (5/2 fav)
2007 – Dansili Dancer (15/2)
2006 – Consular (16/1)
2005 – Zeitgeist (9/1)
2004 – Alkaased (7/1)
2003 – Collier Hill (8/1)
2002 – Sun Bird (40/1)
Old Newton Cup Betting Trends
17/19 – Had won a race over 1m4f before
15/19 – Aged 5 or younger
14/19 – Officially rated between 89 and 97
14/19 – Won no more than 5 times before
13/19 – Carried 9-1 or less
13/19 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
13/19 – Had won at least 3 times before
12/19 – Favourites placed in the top 4
11/19 – Aged 4 years-old
10/19 – Irish or USA bred
10/19 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/19 – Raced within the last 7 days
8/19 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the betting
7/19 – Placed horses (top three) from stall 4
6/19 – Had won a race at Haydock before
5/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/19 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/19 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/19 – Trained by Marco Botti
2/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 11.5/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT:19 runners here so the trends can hopefully help. With 15 of the last 19 winners aged 5 or younger this would be a potential negative for the older runners in the race – Soto Sizzler, Alounak, Pirate King, Scarlet Dragon and Graphite. Winning form over this 1m4f trip is another thing to look for – most fit the bill, but a handful don’t – Lost Eden, Graphite, Morisco, Dark Jedi and Alounak. With 13 of the last 19 winners carrying 9-1 or less and also coming from stalls 13 or lower, these combined are a plus for GRAND BAZAAR, THE TRADER, VALYRAIN STEEL and DARK JEDI. But the last-named has already been ruled out regarding the trip, so that leaves us with GRAND BAZAAR, THE TRADER and VALRAIN STEEL. The former hails from the powerful John Gosden yard that he should be spot-on for this after a decent return run third at HQ in May. He did well around this time last season too and looks to have had this race as a target being lightly-raced this season. The Trader comes from the Mark Johnston yard, that also have Zabeel Champion. This 5 year-old was probably not suited to the tricky Epsom track last time, but if you can forgive that outing had been running well before that. Draw one is useful and Franny Norton takes over in the saddle in a race the yard has won three times since 2013. Then, finally, Valyrain Steel, has done little wrong in winning his last two races at Kempton and is interesting now back on the grass. He’s lightly-raced (6 runs) and despite being up 6lbs from his last win, gets into this better race with just 8st 13lbs in weight. Of those drawn higher, My Frankel, Midnights Legacy and Longsider are sure to have their supporters, while the already mentioned other Johnston runner – Zabeel Champion – looks sure to run a big race now back on better ground.
