It’s DAY TWO of the Chester May Meeting this Thursday (6th May 2021) so we’ve more LIVE ITV racing to take in. The Dee Stakes and the Group Three Ormonde Stakes take centre stage today – did you know 17 of the last 18 Ormonde Stakes winners returned 7/2 or shorter? Suggesting this is a race punters tend to get right!
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!
CHESTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)
1.45 – Satchell Moran Solicitors Business Interruption Claims Handicap Cl2 5f ITV
12/12 – Won from stall 7 or lower
12/12 – Had won over 5f before
11/12 – Had won between 2-6 times before
11/12 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Came from stall 5 or lower
9/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
9/12 – Finished in the top 7 last time out
8/12 – Carried 8-10 or less in weight
8/12 – Had raced at Chester before
7/12 – Officially rated between 87-90
5/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/12 – Winning favourites
5/12 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
2/12 – Winners from stall 1
10 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 1-4
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: We get going with another 5f race and that means the draw will be key again here. A massive 10 of the last 11 winners of this race have come between stalls 1-4, so that’s a huge plus for JABBAROCKIE (1), MONDAMMEJ (2), COPPER KNIGHT (3) and LITHOU (4). Of that quartet, the Eric Alston-trained Jabbarockie will be popular after a good win at Musselburgh last time out and having made all that day, then draw 1 here looks ideal. He is, however, up 3lbs for that but still looks a big player. Copper Knight was 5 ¾ lengths behind Jabbarockie that day so has some ground to make up, but should be fitter for it as that came off around 6 months off and should get a lot closer this time – he’s also the only proven CD winner in this field. But the call is to side with MONDAMMEJ here. The former won well at Pontefract last month and despite being up 7lbs for that did it very well and is clearly a sprinter in top form. He gets in here with just 8-4 in weight and, as mentioned, draw 2 is perfect. Lithou is a course winner here over 6f so we know he stays a bit further, but the worry would be that he bled from the nose in his last race just 5 days ago at Goodwood and after a string of consistent efforts might just be in the handicapper’s grip now. Of the rest, Corinthia Knight is another that can go well from draw 5 and has Hollie Doyle booked, but a chance is also taken on COUNT D’ORSAY (e/w). Yes, he was well behind Jabbarockie last time at Musselburgh but would have needed that run after 6 months off. The Tim Easterby yard also won this race in 2012 and draw 6 isn’t too bad, while the slightly softer ground will also be in his favour.
2.15 – tote+ Biggest Dividends At tote.co.uk Dee Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f75y ITV
17/18 – Had not run at Chester before
16/18 – Yet to win over this trip before
15/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Favourites finished in the frame
15/18 – Came from stall 3 or higher
11/18 – Failed to win another race after taking this
10/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/18 – Had a previous run that season
9/18 – Winners that went onto run in the Epsom Derby
8/18 – Won by the favourite
8/18 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
6/18 – Won their previous race
0/18 – Winners from stall 1
Only Kris Kin in 2003 went onto win this and then the Epsom Derby in the last 17 years
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Godolphin’s Yibir was a close third on his return run at Sandown in the Classic Trial last month and should be in the thick of things, but it’s hard to ignore the good recent record of the Aidan O’Brien yard here – they’ve won the last three renewals and the prize 8 times in total. They run ONTARIO, who looks sure to improve now upped in trip. This Galileo colt was last seen running third in a Listed race at HQ over 7f, but breeding suggests this step up to 1m2f is what he’s been crying out for. His only career win came over 1m ½ a furlong – the furthest he’s gone to date – and the fact O’Brien has picked him out from several possible runners to head here suggests they feel he’ll improve for the extra trip too – Ryan Moore rides. Of the rest, the Stoute-trained Maximal is another Galileo colt that should go well, but he was a beaten favourite on his return run at Newbury over 1m2f so has a bit to prove for me. El Drama is another that could improve for the step up in trip, but FOXES TALES (e/w) is the cover bet after a staying on win over a mile at Newbury caught the eye last month. This Andrew Balding runner was doing his best work in the closing stages that day and with only two career runs is the least exposed runner in the field and, therefore, could have the most improvement to come.
2.45 – Deepbridge Estate Planning Service Handicap Cl2 7f122y ITV
17/18 – Hadn’t raced at Chester before
16/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Had a previous run that season
14/18 – Came between stalls 2-7
11/18 – Finished third or better last time out
11/18 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/18 – Placed favourites
7/18 – Winning favourites (or joint)
5/18 – Ran at Newbury last time out
5/18 – Placed horses from stall 1
2/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/18 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/18 – Winners from stall 1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A tight handicap here and a case can certainly be made for all 10 runners. With 14 of the last 18 winners coming from stalls 2-7 over this 7 1/2f trip, then this is good news for MASTER ZOFFANY, AQUAMAN, BRAVADO, RIFFAA WONDER, MELODY OF LIFE and BAKERSBOY. Of the rest, Ryan Moore riding the Sir Michael Stoute-trained My Swallow will attract interest, but draw 10 might not be ideal, while Buxted Too, from draw one is another to have on your radar with William Buick booked to ride. Aleas and Yazaman would have been of interest if better drawn, while Riffa Wonder is the only proven course winner in the field. The Mark Johnston and Andrew Balding yards have decent records in the race so their BRAVADO (e/w) and MELODY OF LIFE (e/w), who both have good draws might be worth small interests, but the main play here is AQUAMAN, for Roger Varian. This 3 year-old won very easily at Catterick last month and even though this is a big step up in grade he raced up with the pace that day to suggest that draw 3 will be ideal here and now that he’s got that first win could be ready to progress up the ranks.
3.15 – tote+ Pays You More At tote.co.uk Ormonde Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f89y ITV
17/18 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
12/18 – Won by either a 4 or 5 year-old
12/18 – Didn’t win their previous race
11/18 – Had a previous run that season
11/18 – Finished in the top three last time out
9/18 – Won by the favourite
9/18 – Had run before at Chester
5/18 – Ran in the John Porter (Newbury) last time out
4/18 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
4/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/18 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (won it 6 times in all)
Morando won the race in 2019
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Andrew Balding-trained Morando won this race in 2019 – the last time it was run – so commands respect and is also the only CD winner in the field. But he’s not getting any younger at the age of 8 and failed to win all of last season. Withhold, Sextant and Sonnyboyliston are all closely matched based on their ratings and can make their presence felt, but the two standout runners in the field on their official marks are Japan and TRUESHAN. The former is a high-class middle-distance performer from the Aidan O’Brien yard, who has won this prize three times since 2011. But, for me, he’s another that’s on a bit of a recovery mission having last won back in 2019. This step up in trip will also be the furthest he’s gone so even though there is a strong chance he’ll be okay of the trip (has won over 1m4f), he’s still got to prove it. With that in mind, the safer call is to side with TRUESHAN, who won’t have any stamina issues. This Alan King runner was last seen winning over 2m at Ascot on Champions Day and prior to that beat Withhold a length at Salisbury last September. He clearly improved a lot last season and even though it’s not ideal having to give 5lbs away to the others, the fact we know he stays is a plus and Hollie Doyle, who won on him last time, is a further positive in the saddle.
3.45 – Destination 2 Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 1m 2 1/2f ITV4
8/9 – Returned 7/1 or bigger
8/9 – Drawn in stalls 5 or higher
8/9 – Carried between 8-11 and 9-3 in weight
8/9 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
8/9 – Had won at the track before
7/9 – Winners from stall 6 or higher
7/9 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
7/9 – Won 4+ times in the past
7/9 – Won over at least 1m2f
7/9 – Rated 79-84 (inc)
7/9 – Unplaced favourites
7/9 – Returned between 5/1 and 9/1 in the betting
6/9 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
5/9 – Irish bred
3/9 – Winners from stall 8
0/9 – Winning favourites
0/9 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: We end the LIVE ITV action with another open affair. Over this 1m2 1/2 f trip the draw still plays it’s part, but it’s those drawn 5 and higher that have the best recent record – winning 8 of the last 9. Of the 14 runners, those drawn low are First Impression, Spirit Dancer, Baryshinikov and The First King. The horse drawn in stall 8 has had a good time of it too – winning 3 of the last 9, so with that in mind the Hollie Doyle-ridden PROTON (e/w) is worth an interest at a nice price. This Tony Carroll runner was well beaten on his return last month, but that came off a 407-day break and should be a lot sharper for it. He’s down 3lbs too and the drop back in trip should also help. Running in the top five last time out is another trend to note – of those drawn higher, this is a plus for Sarvan, Al Madhar, Crimewave, Kryptos and Lucky’s Dream. Crimewave is yet to win on the turf (9 runs), so that would be a worry with his best form clearly on the AW surfaces. I think there will be more to come from the Hannon-trained Al Madhar and he’s one to note in the betting, but the other pick is LUCKY’S DREAM (e/w) for trainer Ian Williams. This 6 year-old has been in great form on the AW recently, but returns to the turf on a mark that is 13lbs lower than his AW rating. Trip and track look ideal, and Richard Kingscote has a fine recent record on the horse that reads 2-1-1-2-2.
