More LIVE ITV horse racing action this midweek as the cameras head to flat racing’s HQ – Newmarket racecourse – to take in four races on Wednesday and Thursday.
Several early season Classic pointers to take in over the week with the Nell Gwyn and Craven Stakes both key trials ahead of the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas run at the track next month.
Here at Racing Ahead we’ve got it all covered with the key trends, plus our tips on each of the LIVE races.
Wednesday 14th April 2021
1.50 – 6f (Row) Weatherbys Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) ITV4
Just 4 previous runnings
Trainer Roger Varian won the 2019 running
Trainer Ed Walker won the 2018 running
Trainer Charles Hills won the 2017 running
Trainer Kevin Ryan won the 2016 running
3/4 – aged 4 years-old
3/4 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
3/4 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
2/4 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
0/4 – Winning favourites
Gunmetal won this race in 2017
Trainer Tom Dascombe has a 40% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The 8 year-old Gunmetal won this race in 2017 and is still going strong – he heads here off the back of a good win at Doncaster last time and despite going up 4lbs for that is still rated 3lbs lower than his 2017 success in this race. Count Otto was 8th in this race in 2019 too, while Dazzling Dan and Chil Chil are the two other proven CD winners at the track. Hollie Doyle’s mount Going Places likes to get on with things so expect a bold show from the front and having won over 7f last time we know the horse stays a bit further than this 6f trip – can go well. But the three of interest here are WILLIE JOHN, STONE CIRCLE and ADDITIONAL. The former hails from the Tom Dascombe yard that have a 40% record with their older horses at the track. This 6 year-old is having it’s debut for the yard after being with Roger Varian before, but the ground is fine and having been rated in the 100’s, his current mark of 99 looks workable. Stone Circle and Additional are the two 4 year-olds in the race and with 3 of the last 4 winners of this prize aged 4, then these tick the age trend. William Buick is also a top booking for Stone Circle, who was last seen winning at Ascot in October, while the Martyn Meade yard are 2-from-8 with their older horses at the track and are responsible for Additional.
2.25 – 7f (Row) bet365 European Free Handicap (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) ITV4
14/14 – Had won between 1-2 times before
13/14 – Rated between 101 and 108
13/14 – Raced at Kempton, Newmarket, Ascot or Newbury last time out
13/14 – Didn’t win last time out
12/14 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Last ran 5 ½ or longer months ago
11/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Drawn in stalls 2-6 (inc)
10/14 – Finished 2nd or 3rd last time out
8/14 – Yet to win over 7f
6/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Won by the Hills stable
4/14 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Some promising 3 year-olds on show here. With 11 of the last 14 winners coming from stalls 2-6 (inc), then the Aidan O’Brien runner – Ontario – who is drawn in stall 1 – plus Percy’s Lad (7), have this to overcome. We’ve a royal runner too in Tactical, who landed the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot last June and since had been highly-tried at Group One level – he’ll find this ease in grade a lot easier and can’t be ruled out, but does have a bit to prove over this 7f trip for me. But the safest call looks to be the Godolphin runner – NAVAL CROWN. This Charlie Appleby runner should be fitter than most after winning in Dubai at the end of February and we know he stays further than this 7f trip – we can expect connections to make full use of that. William Buick rides, while the Charlie Appleby yard boasts a cracking 30% record with their 3 year-olds at the track. Of the rest, DARK LION (e/w) is the only other proven winner over this 7f trip and having been gelded since his last run could have more improvement to come now his focus is fully on his racing!
3.00 – 1m1f (Row) bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (4yo+) ITV4
13/13 – Had won over a least a mile in the past
13/13 – Favourites placed in the top three
11/13 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
10/13 – Won at least 3 times in the past
10/13 – Had raced at the track before (5 won)
9/13 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Had won over 1m1f or further in the past
9/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/13 – Had won a Group/Listed race before
7/13 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/13 – Drawn in stalls 8 (3) or 10 (3)
4/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Trained by John Gosden
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam
2/13 – Ridden by William Buick
0/13 – Winners from stall 1
6 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 2-4 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Marie’s Diamond and the Ryan Moore-ridden Solid Stone are the only two proven course winners in the field, so that must count for something and with the last-named coming from the Stoute yard, who are in great form, he’s one for the shortlist. My Oberon has solid form around this level too, but the fact he’s only got the one win from his five starts is a slight worry. On a plus, he’ll love the better ground after flopping in the soft at Redcar last October. The Gosden runner – Forest Of Dean – will be fit from a decent winter AW campaign, but the yard also run GLOBAL GIANT and this one looks their better chance. This 6 year-old is no spring chicken but was an easy winner of the Listed Magnolia Stakes at Kempton last time out and is the top-rated in this line-up too. Unlike some of the others, we know he’s fine over this trip too and will be okay on the ground. It’s a race the Gosden team took in 2012 and 2016 too. I think the danger can come from the Roger Varian-trained SAN DONATO. The yard won this race in 2019 when it was last run and despite a 207-day layoff, he’s a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past. This trip looks ideal after running out of steam over 1m2f last time at Ayr in the Doonside Cup, while the yard have started this early part of the season well.
3.35 – 7f (Row) Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo) ITV4
16/17 – Were having their first run of the season
14/17 – Had won between 1-2 times previously
14/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/17 – Had only won over 6f or 7f before
12/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/17 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley)
9/17 – Had won over 7f before
9/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Had won a Listed or Group race in the past
7/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (won it 7 times in all)
4/17 – Trained by John Gosden
2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
1/17 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 8/1
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 30% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Hugo Palmer is only 2-from-42 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Charles Hills is only 3-from-55 with his 3 year-olds at the track
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A big day for trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam here as she runs her unbeaten filly – Saffron Beach – here. This 3 year-old has caught the eye on winning both her races here at the track over this trip so that proven experience is a bonus. She’s already a winner at this G3 level too and won’t mind the ground. Sacred will find this easier than the Group One Cheveley Park Stakes he ran in last time here, but is up in trip to 7f for the first time, so that is the unknown, while with five career runs, she’s one of the more exposed in the field. Love Is You could be anything after winning both her starts to date, but both have been with a bit of cut in the ground too. The John Gosden yard have a good record in the race too, so of the bigger priced runners, their STAR OF EMARAATY (e/w) and TAWAHUB (e/w) enter the mix and the yard are no strangers to winning this race with a bigger-priced runner. The former is having her first run for the yard after coming from the Kevin Ryan camp. She didn’t seem to handle the softer ground last time, so the return to a quicker surface will help, as will the drop back in trip. Tawahub got off the mark at the second try at Chelmsford in October, but the fact the yard are upping her in grade to this level suggests they think she’s okay. But the main pick is the Godolphin runner – DIVINE LIGHT. This 3 year-old has proven CD form when winning her in October on debut and with another winter on her back should be a lot more forward and stronger this season. She’s entered in the 1,000 Guineas too and the yard, who boast a decent 30% record with their 3 year-olds at the track, won this in 2018 too.
===============================================================
Thursday 15th April 2021
1.50 – 6f (Row) Each Way Extra At bet365.com Handicap (Class 2) (3yo)
14/14 – Had won over 6f before
13/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
12/14 – Came from stall 8 or lower
12/14 – Rated between 86-93 (inc)
11/14 – Carried 8-13 or less
10/14 – Had between 1-4 previous runs
10/14 – Won after 5 ½ months or more off
10/14 – Had won just once before
9/14 – Won from stalls 2, 6 or 8
9/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/14 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/14 – Ridden by Silvestre de Sousa
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 30% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Ian Williams has a 23% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 26% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Godolphin runners – Creative Force – will be a popular choice here being the only CD winner in the field. But he does need to bounce back from a poor run in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot last June. That was the last time he was on the track, but has been gelded since and could easily bounce back. The Varian yard won this in 2017 and they will be trying to add to that success with Caim Island – he’s shown a good level of form with two career wins and is another that’s been gelded since his last run. Rohaan and Significantly will be fitter than some after recent runs on the AW, but the interesting two here, for me, are BRAVADO and RAZOR GLASS. The former is another that’s been running on the AW over the winter, but is also 1-from-1 on the turf. He didn’t get the best of runs last time at Lingfield so had excuses there, but prior to that run had been running well – the Mark Johnston yard won this in 2012, while 3 of the last 8 winners have come from stall 2. Razor Glass returns from a 4 ½ month break, but already has 2 wins from just 4 runs to her name and looks the sort to have more to come. She’s also got a good draw in 8 and will the ground, while she also had another of today’s runners – Sir Benedict – beaten into third last time at Kempton.
2.25 – 1m (Row) bet365 Wood Ditton Maiden Stakes (Class 3) (3yo)
12/12 – Having their debut runs
11/12 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
9/12 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Favourites placed
7/12 – Winning distance less than a length
6/12 – Winning favourites
4/12 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/12 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/12 – Trained by William Haggas
0/12 – Winners from stalls 1-4 (inc)
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 30% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 26% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Oisin Murphy has a 21% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A lot to be taken on trust here, with all 11 runners having their debut runs. Therefore, the betting will be key, but it’s also a race the Godolphin yard have done well in over the years so the safest call might be to just stick with their runners – Ironside and Valiant Prince. The former is trained by the John Gosden yard, who also have Peter The Great in the race, but with a 30% record with their 3 year-olds at the track, I’ll take a chance on the Charlie Appleby-trained VALIANT PRINCE. This unraced Dubawi colt will also have William Buick riding and he’s got a 26% record riding 3 year-olds at the course. Of the rest, the Roger Varian yard won this race the last time it was run in 2019 and have Nagano entered, while Sir Rumi, for the Richard Hannon yard and Kingsofthemidlands, for Andrew Balding, are others to note in the market.
3.00 – 6f (Row) bet365 Abernant Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)
13/14 – Won over 6f before
13/14 – Aged 4 or older
12/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
10/14 – Rated between 106 and 114
10/14 – Ran 5 months or more ago
10/14 – Had run at Newmarket before
10/14 – Won at least 4 times before
9/14 – Favourites placed in the top three
9/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/14 – Irish bred
4/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
4/14 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/14 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/14 – Won by the Hills stable
1/14 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
Brando won the race in 2017 and 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The 7 year-old, Summerghand, will be fit from the AW and heads here in great form having won at Lingfield a few weeks ago. He beat Exalted Angel by a head that day and there shouldn’t be a lot between them again here. Emaraaty Ana is another that should go well, while Jouska is a proven CD winner so has that track experience in his locker. However, it would be a slight shock if this race wasn’t going to the 120-rated Roger Teal-trained OXTED. This 5 year-old is well clear on the ratings and was the winner of the G1 July Cup last season. Yes, he flopped over in Saudi Arabia last time out, but back on home soil and at a track he’s won at in the past, then eased into a Group Three make him the clear one to beat.
3.35 – 1m (Row) bet365 Craven Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo)
16/17 – Having their first run of the season
14/17 – Rated 110 or higher
13/17 – Yet to win over a mile
13/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
13/17 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
12/17 – Had won over 7f before
12/17 – Had won no more than twice before
10/17 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
10/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
9/17 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before (4 won)
7/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon (4 of the last 10)
5/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
1/17 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5 or less
4 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
The average winning SP in the last 17 renewals is 9/2
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: This could be a bit of a shootout between the heavyweight yards of Charlie Appleby and Aidan O’Brien, who both have two runners in the race. O’Brien has Sandhurst and Khartoum entered – and both hold Epsom Derby entries too. Sandhurst was a winner in heavy ground at Gowan Park back in October (7f), but breeding suggests this step up in trip is a plus and the market should be noted ahead of his chance. Khartoum was also a winner over 7f last time and is another that should be fine up to a mile here – the betting should hopefully tell us who is the more fancied of the pair come the day. But I still feel the Godolphin team hold the better chance here – mainly because both their runners – La Barrosa and MASTER OF THE SEAS – have won at the track in the past. The heavy ground went against La Barrosa in the Group One Criterium International last time (Oct), but prior to that had caught the eye with two nice wins at Ascot and here at HQ. Their other runner – Master Of The Seas – was turned over as an odds-on favourite last time at Meydan, but that was his first run for 5 ½ months and just ran a bit free, meaning he didn’t last out. With that run under his belt and the hood on today, then there is every chance he can settle better, while the return to HQ – a track he’s won at before (7f) will help. Of the rest, Akmaam, Devilwala and Mystery Smiles have all shown a decent level of form to warrant respect, but a chance is also taken on the Oisin Murphy-ridden ROYAL AIR FORCE (e/w). This 3 year-old won on debut at Yarmouth by an easy 7 lengths, so could be anything. He’s got some fancy entries this season too, so is clearly well regraded and even though it’s hard to assess that opening win, the step up in trip could bring out more improvement and Murphy catches the eye in the saddle for this Simon Crisford-trained runner.
