It’s the calm before the storm this coming Saturday with the Cheltenham Festival looming on the horizon. However, still plenty to get stuck into with the ITV cameras to take in four races at Sandown Park that include the competitive Imperial Cup – a race the sponsors (Paddy Power) put up an additional bonus of £100k should the winner go onto land any race at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival – the last horse to do the double was Gaspara in 2007.
We’ve also two LIVE ITV races on the AW to take in from Wolverhampton, including the Lincoln Handicap Trial – yes, all the racing talk might be about Cheltenham at the moment, but the start of the flat turf season is also not far away!
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD we’ve all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get GOING!
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Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)
1.50 – European Breeders´ Fund Paddy Power “National Hunt” Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f173y ITV4
17/17 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
16/17 – Carried 10-11 or more
14/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/17 – Rated 129 or less
13/17 – Unplaced favourites
12/17 – Returned 9/1 or less in the betting
11/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Aged 6 years-old
9/17 – Had won over this trip before
6/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Won by the Pipe yard
1/17 – Winning favourites
1/17 – Winners that went onto run at Cheltenham (3rd Martin Pipe)
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Super-competitive contest here, with no fewer than eight of the 18 runners last time out winners. It’s a race that’s produced some nice horses in recent years too – McFabulous and Third Wind have landed the last two renewals. The Henderson yard have a good record – winning the race twice since 2011, so their Captain Morgs and Patroclus are sure to be popular. The Pipe yard have also had a few winners in the contest and run Martinhal, who has caught the eye in winning his last two and comes here as the top-rated in the field, which also means he carries top-weight. Karl Philippe was second behind Martinhal two runs back, but built on that with a nice win at Exeter last time out and represents the Fergal O’Brien yard that won this in 2016. He made all that day and can go well again, but is 8lbs higher in this better race and his jumping wasn’t great last time, so I just wonder if that will catch him out here. Trainer Dan Skelton is currently 0-from-28 with his hurdlers here, so his Riggs is overlooked on that. The Nigel Twiston-Davies yard have a decent 24% record with their hurdlers here – they run two Beauport and The Mick Preston – the last-named, who was a nice winner at Hereford, looks their better hope. Sometimes Always, Ocean Drifter and Sam Barton are others to respect, but the two I’ll pin my hopes on are STRIKING A POSE (e/w) and, the already mentioned, PATROCLUS (e/w). The former hails from the Colin Tizzard yard, who are having a bit of a quiet season but that will surely chance soon. This 5 year-old has won his last two races in good fashion and we know he stays a bit further than this 2m4f trip too (has won over 2m5 1/2f). The stable also boast a fair 22% record at the track with their hurdlers. The other pick – Patroclus – has been a narrow winner of his last two – beating Riggs by ¾ of a length last time at Doncaster. But he’s only had three career runs and having looked a bit raw in his recent races there is every chance he’ll continue to improve with racing. The yard has a cracking 26% record with their hurdlers here and Nico De Boinville is an obvious plus in the saddle.
2.30 – Paddy Power Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4
16/17 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
16/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
15/17 – Carried 10-13 or less
14/17 – Rated 124 or higher
13/17 – Aged 6 or younger
12/17 – Carried 10-7 or less
11/17 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before
10/17 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara – Fred Winter)
10/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
9/17 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
6/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – French bred
5/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Had raced at Sandown (hurdles) before – 2 had won there before
5/17 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
2/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of last 4)
1/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 11/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Gary Moore-trained NATURAL HISTORY has been all the rage in the betting this week and it’s easy to see why. This former Royal runner has switched to hurdling this season and even though he took three races to get off the mark, his most recent run was impressive. They will be hoping the ground stays dry and even though he’s up 16lbs from that last run, he was a talented 97-rated flat horse that was second in a Group Three at Newbury back in October. Jamie Moore rides and with that confidence booster last time out, there is every chance this 6 year-old could still be ahead of the handicapper and then go onto bigger and better things. His proven flat speed will be a big plus and even though he’s taken a bit of a hold in his races, you feel in this better race they will go a bit quicker, which will help on that score. Of the rest, this race is always associated with the Pipe yard – who have won it 9 times in all and landed the bonus three times. Yes, don’t forget that sponsors Paddy Power put up a £50k bonus should the winner go onto land any Cheltenham Festival race next week. Gaspara, who was trained by the Pipes, was the last horse to win the bonus in 2007. They run Leoncavallo and Eamon An Cnoic here so both have to be respected. Of the two, the former was last seen running a fair 6th in the Cesarewitch at HQ and has won 6 of this 21 hurdles starts too. He’s been kept fresh for this since, but is a horse that goes well off a break – certainly one for the shortlist. The Nigel Twiston-Davies yard won this in 2016 and 2018, so their One True King will be hoping to add to that, while Paul Nicholls won the prize last year and tries to follow-up with Diego Du Charmil and Miranda running for him. The last-named was a tidy winner last time at Doncaster but will have a lot of weight to carry with 11st 12lbs – 15 of the last 17 winners won with 10-13 or less. Actually 12 of the last 17 winners also won with 10-7 or less, so that would be a plus for just two in the race – HASANABAD (e/w) and the other Pipe runner – Eamon An Cnoic. The first-named might be worth an interest then with that light weight and comes from the Ian Williams yard that won this in 2017. Sean Bowen has been booked to ride and seems to act will on this better ground. A recent third at Newbury was a fair effort and even though more is needed on that, his got a light burden and that last run was his first run over hurdles this year so is sure to have got his eye back in. Of the rest, Highway One O Two, Mick Maestro and the Skelton runner Langer Dan are others to note, especially the latter, who caught the eye of many when running on well at Market Rasen last time out after a 4 month break – he’s got entries in the County Hurdle and Martin Pipe next week too, but I can’t help keep coming back to the fact Skelton is 0-from-28 here with his hurdlers.
3.00 – British Stallion Studs EBF Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) Cl1 2m110y ITV4
16/16 – Had won at least one NH Flat race before
15/16 – 1ST or 2ND last time out
14/16 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
12/16– Won last time out
11/16 – Had won just once before (NH Flat race)
9/16 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
9/16 – Aged 5 years-old
1/16 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 13 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Probably not a race to get too involved in – being we’ll have a lot of lightly-raced sorts and newcomers in attendance. The Nicky Henderson yard are 2-from-2 in NH Flat races at the track though, so if you are having a bet, then maybe their TWEED SKIRT is the one to play. A nice winner at Wetherby on debut and she gets in here with just 10-6 being a 4 year-old. The Fergal O’Brien camp also have a fair record (40%) in these races at the track, so their Billams Legacy is another to consider, while the Paul Nicholls runner – Rainyday Woman – is sure to be popular after two nice wins in this sphere, including a Listed success last time. However, as a result she’s got to carry a penalty for that win and give weight away all-round. The market will be a good guide, but others that won well last time were the Alan King-trained FINEST VIEW and the Lucy Wadham runner – CODE NAME LISE.
3.35 – Paddy’s Rewards Club Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (5yo+ 0-145) 2m4f ITV4
Just 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Aged 5 or 6 year-old
3/3 – Top 4 finish last time out
3/3 – French bred
3/3 – Didn’t win last time out
3/3 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
3/3 – Returned 15/2 or shorter
2/3 – Favourites placed
2/3 – Won with 11st 8lbs or more
0/3 – Winning favourites
Trainers, Ben Pauling, Nick Williams and Gary Moore are the past winners of this race
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 22% record with his chasers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 6/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Some promising sorts on show here, including recent winners – Belargus, Annsam, Lust For Glory, No Getaway and Stratagem. Of that bunch, the Paul Nicholls runner – Stratagem – should be feared having beaten Ballymoy well last time out and that horse won well in the week – albeit at very short odds. However, he’ll have a big weight (11-10) to carry here and that won’t be easy against several other in-form rivals. NO GETAWAY is a proven course and distance winner too and seems to have benefitted a lot from a recent win operation after bolting up here last month – he’s up 10lbs for that, which is a bit hefty, but looks the sort that could kick on now over fences. The Henderson yard have the best strike-rate over fences on offer here (22%), so their Lust For Glory will be trying to back that up, but I’m happy to stick with the progressive HIGH UP IN THE AIR here, who has won his last five over fences. This Gary Moore runner has shot up the ranks and is now rated 35lbs higher than when winning at Lingfield back in November, but was another top winner at Fontwell at the end of last month and might not have stopped improving just yet. Yes, a 9lb rise in the ratings makes life harder and this is another step up in grade, but he’s also a proven CD winner here. The only niggle would be that if the ground dries out as he’s unproven on a quicker surface – all recent runs have been on soft or heavy, but I’m happy to take that chance.
Wolverhampton Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)
2.05 – Bombardier Lady Wulfruna Stakes (AW Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f32y ITV4
12/14 – Had won over 7f before
11/14 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/14 – Placed favourites
11/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Rated 104 or higher
9/14 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
7/14 – Raced at Lingfield last time out
7/14 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
8/14 – Unplaced last time out
6/14 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
6/14 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
5/14 – Winning favourite
2/15 – Trained by Marco Botti
Urban Icon (2/1 fav) won the race in 2020
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Richard Hannon yard won this race 12 months ago and with Ryan Moore booked to ride their MUMS TIPPLE are clearly in the mood to try and follow-up. This 4 year-old blew away the cobwebs at Lingfield last time out in a Listed race – only beaten 1 ¾ lengths. He also didn’t get the best of runs that day and ran to suggest this step up to 7f will suit. He also hung a bit left there, but at this left-handed track that won’t be too much of an issue – with a bit more luck in-running, can go close. His main dangers look to be the Archie Watson runner – Highland Dress, who is rated 6lbs higher than the selection, while last year’s runner-up in this race – Documenting – should go well too with the same draw (9) as 12 months ago. Recent winner – Shimmering Dawn – has a good draw in 1, while Raaeb and Lord Of The Lodge should go well too. But the other pick is the Paul Midgley runner – OSTILIO (e/w), who has a decent draw in 2 too. The main reason is the drop back to 7f. This horse has a fine record over this trip – 2-2-2-1-1! He’s back from a 4 month break too, but has gone well fresh in the past and could have more to offer with only two previous runs on the AW.
2.40 – Bombardier British-Hopped Amber Lincoln Trial Handicap Cl2 1m141y ITV4
17/18 – Aged 6 or younger
16/18 – Won over a mile (or further) before
15/18 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
15/18– Won at least three times before
14/18 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/18 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
9/18 – Came from stall 8 or higher
8/18 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
7/18 – Aged 5 years-old
5/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/18 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
Zwayyan (7/1) won this race in 2019
Assimilation (12/1) won the race 12 months ago
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: With 17 of the last 18 winners aged 6 or younger, then this would have to be a negative for the well-fancied Born To Be Alive, who was a good winner at Kempton last time out, plus Oh This Is Us and the 2019 winner Zwayyan, Scottish Summit and Pinnata. The Richard Fahey yard run Tadleel, who is seeking a three-timer after two wins at Newcastle, and they’ve negated his 4lb rise in the ratings with Laura Pearson riding and claiming 5lbs this time. But this could be another for jockey Ryan Moore – he teams-up with trainer Marco Botti to ride MISSION BOY. This 5 year-old will need a bit of luck from draw 13, but is often held up in the rear anyway. He was 3 lengths behind Born To Be Alive last time at Kempton but has a 6lb weight pull for that this time. Of the rest, Hannon also runs Man Of The Night and this one can be in the mix too, but despite his age I’ll also have an interest in the only CD winner in the field – ZWAYYAN (e/w), who won this race in 2019. Yes, he’s lost his way a bit since, but is now 4lbs lower than that win two years ago and connections are also putting up jockey Callum Hutchinson, who can claim 7lbs extra. That means he’s 11lbs better offer than when last successful in this race.
3.15 – Betway Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4
10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Drawn 5 or higher
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Had won over 6f before
8/10 – Aged between 4 and 7 (inc)
7/10 – Returned 8/1 or less in the betting
7/10 – Favourites placed
7/10 – Rated between 88-96 (inc)
7/10 – Won last time out
6/10 – Won between 3-6 times before
5/10 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
5/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Winning favouriteThe average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: With 9 of the last 10 winners drawn in stalls 5 or higher, then this is good news for Wentworth Falls, Zarzyni, Lord Rapscallion and Repartee. Then with 8 of the last 10 winners aged between 4 and 7, of those four already mentioned the 9 year-old Wentworth Falls is ruled out. With all that in mind, the call here is the Kevin Ryan-trained REPARTEE. This 4 year-old was highly-tried at G3 level the last twice, but has since been gelded over the summer and could be ready to kick on again. He’s already a Listed winner too, so this drop back into a handicap will be easier and he’s won off a break in the past, so the 225-day absence isn’t too much of a worry. He also makes his AW debut here today, but likes it quick on the turf, so there is no reason why it won’t suit. The other two rated in the 100’s – Brian The Snail and Summerghand enter calculations too, but with a light weight (8-6) the David Barron runner – ZARZYNI (e/w) – might be worth a small interest too. Drawn well in 6, this 4 year-old has come over from Ireland to make his UK debut and with some fair handicap form over there, could be interesting off a mark of 90 – the yard are also in good order and boast a fine 19% record with their 4+ year-old here at the track.
