With the Cheltenham Festival looming it’s no surprise the quality of the weekend racing takes a slight dip over the next few weekends. That said, we’ve still plenty of action to enjoy as the ITV cameras head to Newbury to take in two races, with the Greatwood Gold Cup their feature race – a contest the powerful Paul Nicholls yard have won in 7 of the last 10 runnings.
We’ve also got three races at Doncaster with the Grimthorpe Chase the main event – 12 of the last 16 winners were aged 9 or older and carried 10-13 or less in weight, so these two trends are certainly worth having on your side.
The cameras are also at Kelso for four races – the Grade Two bet365 Premier Kelso Hurdle – with 10 of the last 12 winners placed in the top four last time out, this is a key trend to have on side.
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!
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NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4/RacingTV)
1.15 – BetVictor Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 3 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y ITV
9/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
8/10 – Aged 10 years-old
8/10 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
6/10 – Favourites unplaced
5/10 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
4/10 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
2/10 – Won their last race
1/10 – Winning favourites
Carole’s Destrier (6/1) won the race in 2019
Trainer David Pipe won the race in 2015 and 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 6 renewals is 6/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Some old faces on show here for this veterans’ race – you have to be 10 or older to qualify. With that in mind, it’s interesting that 8 of the last 10 winners of this race have actually been 10 year-olds – if this is to be repeated then there are only two qualify horses, THE KINGS WRIT (e/w) and COLORADO DOC (e/w). The former ran below-par at Wincanton last time out, but before that was a decent second in the Somerset National and is only 4lbs higher. But that is also offset by Ben Godfrey’s 5lb claim. The other 10 year-old – Colorado Doc – also has a bit to prove after being pulled up and falling in his last three starts. However, he’s dropped 3lbs more here and his form from last year would certainly give him a chance. For his age he’s also only had five runs over fences so is lightly-raced and that coupled with his age might just give him an edge over some of those a bit longer in the tooth. Of the rest, the Paul Nicholls yard have a good record in the race so their Present Man is hard to ignore, while the Mulholland yard took this 12 months ago and try to follow-up – this time with Shantou Village, who could be dangerous off just 10st 9lbs.
1.50 – BetVictor Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV
15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
13/16 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
13/16 – Won over this trip previously
11/16 – Officially rated 139 or higher
11/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
8/16 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
8/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/16 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/16 – Favourites to win (1 joint)
3/16 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
2/16 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/16 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Umbrigado and Killer Clown were both good winners last time out, but are also up 5lbs and 15lbs for those successes, so have more on their plate here. But this is a race the Paul Nicholls camp have a cracking record in recently – winning 9 of the last 16 – so it’s hard to get away from their two runners in the race – GRAND SANCY and CAPELAND (e/w). The former is likely to be the better fancied in the betting but does need to put a poor run at Wincanton (Nov) behind him. Connections said he had an issue with his breathing that day, so that is a small concern, but he’s had 4 months off and even though no second wind op (had one in July 20), the Nicholls camp are sure to have done plenty of work with him. He was a good winner of a Listed Novice Chase in October and if back in that form would be hard to beat here. Capeland was pulled up at Ascot last time after never really travelling in the race, but was a nice winner at Wincanton the time before. He’s only 4lbs higher than success and does have a profile of a horse that can often throw in a bad one and then bounce back. Of the rest, the Henderson yard also run two – Pistol Whipped and Gold Present – while the Alan King runner – Senior Citizen – and the Henry Oliver entry – The Big Bite – are others that would have the form to go well here.
DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)
2.20 – Virgin Bet Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m96y ITV
7 previous runnings
7/7- Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/7 – Favourites placed in the top 2
6/7 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
4/7 – Won by the favourite (1 co-fav)
4/7 – Irish bred
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: With 6 of the last 7 winners aged 5 or 6 and placed in the top two last time out, this would be a big plus for just one horse – PHILLAPA SUE (e/w). But this former Irish-trained 6 year-old has not been seen since last October and it’s hard to translate her Irish form to over here. However, she still might be worth chancing and any support in the market should be noted. The 8 year-old Go Millie Go is the only last time out winner in the field so can’t be ruled out, but that was back in November and this is jump up in grade. Airgead Suas is the only past winner over this trip in the race so that must count for something, but is stepping up in grade here so has more on her plate. Rayna’s World in the top-rated in the field and should go well too, but is another that has to prove herself over this 3m trip – the furthest she’s gone to date is 2m4f. The same (trip) applies to Alpha Caringe, plus this 6 year-old jumped a bit right-handed last time at Warwick so that’s not ideal at this left-handed venue. So, that leaves us with the Alan King runner – WYNN HOUSE – as the main pick. This 6 year-old mare was a fair fourth (of 8) at Cheltenham in the Grade Two Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle and with that race coming over 3m we know the trip is okay. She’s won 2 of her three hurdles runs and being lightly-raced should have more in the locker, with the dryer ground here also in her favour (both hurdles wins coming on good ground).
2.55 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV
9 previous runnings
9/9 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
6/9 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
6/9 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
5/9 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
3/9 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
2/9 – Trained by Brian Ellison
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Movie Legend won this race in 2019
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Several proven CD winner in the race – Movie Legend, who won this race in 2019, Duke Of Navan and Ballywood, while Zoffee is a course winner too. However, this could be another for the Paul Nicholls yard – who has won this race twice since 2013. They run the 8 year-old GETAWAY TRUMP here and after a recent second at Musselburgh should be a lot fitter this time. That run came off a 2 ½ month break and is also dropped 3lbs this time. Jockey Lorcan Williams also keeps the ride so his 3lb claim is a further plus, while even though he certainly stays further (has won over 2m5f) the drop back in trip looks an interesting move and connections are sure to make full use of that stamina.
3.30 – Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f ITV
16/16 – Aged 8 or older
15/16 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/16 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
13/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
12/16 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
12/16 – Aged 9 or older
11/16 – From the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Rated 131 or less
10/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/16 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
7/16 – Won their last race
8/16 – Irish bred
4/16 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/16 – Winning Favourites
8 year-olds have won 3 of the last 6 runnings
Captain Chaos won the race in 2020
Chidswell won the race in 2019
Definitely Red won this race in 2017
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Chidswell won this race in 2019 as a 10 year-old but is now 2 years older and certainly no spring chicken. He gets in here with just 10-3 in weight, but is actually still rated 3lbs higher than his success in the race of a few years back. Beware The Bear is a fair handicap stayer around this level and former winner of the Ultima Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, but he’s another aging horse (11) and recent runs haven’t been too encouraging. Just A Sting and course winner – Red Infantry – have the form to go well but do need to rediscover it, while Chef D’Oeuvre comes here off the back of a wind op and sports the first-time cheekpieces. But it’s hard to get away from the youngest horse in the race – CANELO – here. This 8 year-old was a nice winner of the Rowland Meyrick Chase on Boxing Day and wasn’t disgraced last time when fourth in the Sky Bet Chase here. The extra two furlongs here should be fine and has been dropped a pound in the ratings too. With most of the others having questions to answer, he does really and looks the safest call. Of the rest, the other CD winner in the field – SPECIAL PREP (e/w) – might be worth a small saver too off a light weight.
KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)
1.30 – bet365 Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV
11/12 – Aged 7 or younger
11/12 – Favourites placed in the top three
11/12 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
10/12 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
7/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Had raced at Kelso before
6/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Winning favourite
3/12– Ran at Musselburgh last time out
2/12 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Several reputations on the line here, with My Drogo, Bareback Jack and Lucky One all nice winners last time out. My Drogo was a cracking winner of the Grade Two Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Ascot in December and that’s probably the best form on show. He’s had a nice break since and it’s hard to crab his chance. Bareback Jack is the only unbeaten runner in the field (4 wins) and was a smooth winner at Musselburgh last time out – he made all that day and another bold bid from the front looks on the cards. But the Paul Nicholls runner – LUCKY ONE – get the nod. This 6 year-old has taken time to settle in to the Paul Nicholls yard after coming over from the Willie Mullins yard, but he was a nice winner last time out at Wincanton and could be ready to kick on now. He beat Natural History that day by 20 lengths and the form of that race has since been franked by the runner-up winning well this midweek. He’s another that likes to get on with things from the front, but having run well over further in the past that proven stamina will certainly be an asset – he’s also the joint top-rated in the field, with Any News, but gets a handy 5lbs from My Drogo and 3lbs from Bareback Jack. The already mentioned Any News would therefore also have a big chance, while Castle Rushen, Do Your Job and Alright Sunshine have all shown promise and if finding a bit more improvement can’t be totally discounted either.
2.05 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV
No past runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 40% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Keith Dalgleish has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Taxmeifyoucan is the only CD winner in the field and represents the Keith Dalgleish yard that have a 21% record at the track with their hurdlers. He’s also got a 10lb claiming jockey riding so that will be a huge help – but this does look harder. Any support for the Dan Skelton runner – SAIL AWAY – should be noted as he showed a good level of form a few seasons back in France, especially as the yard boast a decent 40% record with their hurdlers here. Yes, the 500+ day absence would be a worry, but the horse has gone well fresh in the past and it’s interesting the Skelton camp are sending him all this way after such a break. Mega Yeats ran well in an AW bumper at Kempton last time and is another with some fair hurdles form to her name. The Nicholls runner – Flash Collonges – is the likely favourite after wining well at Wincanton last time out, but he’s up another 6lbs for that and was turned over at 4/9 the time before that last win, so does have some chinks. Torn And Freyed, Mayo Star and Sebastopol are others to have on your radar.
2.40 – bet365 Premier Chase (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m 7 1/2f) ITV
7/7 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/7 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Had run at the course before
6/7 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
5/7 – Placed 4th or better last time out
5/7 – Won over 3m plus in the past
5/7 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
5/7 – Aged 9 or older
4/7 – Irish bred
4/7 – Rated between 132-140 (inc)
3/7 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/7 – Won by jockey Brian Hughes
3/7 – Winning favourite
Definitely Red (Evs) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 13/2
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Only six runners here but some big names on show and a decent renewal. You’d probably say only Cool Mix has it to do of the six runners. We’ve also got the 2020 winner in the race – Definitely Red – who is the joint top-rated in the field with Aso. Last year’s winner is now a 12 year-old though and also needs to bounce back from a fall at Newcastle last time out. In contrast, ASO ran a blinder to be a neck second behind Two For Gold – but you feel on 9lbs better terms and over this slightly longer trip this Venetia Williams runner can gain some revenge. He’s not getting any younger (11), but is clearly still in love with the game after that last run and might just have one more big race in him. Two For Gold, was tough last time and despite the weight turnaround can go well too – he’s a proven CD winner too. The Trevor Hemmings pair – Lake View Lad, who was a shock winner of the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree in December, and Cloth Cap are certainly not out of things either, but both hold entries for the Grand National next month and you feel this run will tee them both up nicely for a crack at the Merseyside Marathon – a race their popular owner has landed three times in the past!
3.15 – bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m
9/9 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/9 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Had run in the last 3 months
8/9 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
6/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/9 – Rated between 138-146
4/9 – Winning favourites
4/9 – Irish bred
3/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/9 – Ridden by Brian Hughes
2/9 – Had won at the track before
2/9 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/9 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/4
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Irish raider – The Shunter – is the interesting one here after a fair third at Leopardstown last time out over fences. Back over hurdles this time after last being seen over here when winning the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November. He’s 7lbs higher this time but a repeat of that run would make him the one to beat. The Nicholls runner – Christopher Wood – was a nice winner at Musselburgh last time out but is up 7lbs for that. Angus Cheleda is able to claim 7lbs, but he was also riding last time too. Another bold bid looks on the cards though and he’s the top-rated in the field. Nicholls also runs SOLO (e/w) and this could be worth having a small interest in. Yes, his recent runs have been dire, but he’s now rated 16lb lower than when running 8th in the Triumph Hurdle last season – a race he was sent off 4/1 for. He’s clearly not progressed as many thought, but his dropping handicap mark makes him dangerous to overlook, with Harry Cobden riding. Tommy’s Oscar, Voix Du Reve and Blakeney Point are others to note, but the main pick is the Dan Skelton runner – FAIVOIR – who heads here on a three-timer after wins at Ludlow and Haydock. The last was in a Grade Two Novice Hurdle at Haydock and the form has since been franked with the fourth – Anythingforlove – winning recently. Yes, more is needed as he’s into a handicap here and is rated 12lbs higher than that last success, but is clearly a progressive hurdle, while, as mentioned in previous races, his trainer boasts a cracking 40% strike-rate with his hurdlers here at the track.
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