No let-up for the top-class racing action over the festive period with another huge day of National Hunt action on Sunday 27th December.
The ITV cameras head to Kempton for three races for the second and final day of their Winter Festival, while they are also at Chepstow to take in the Welsh National – Did you know 16 of the last 18 Welsh National winners were aged 9 or younger, and 11 of the last 18 winners carried 10-8 or less in weight?
**Chepstow has been Cancelled due to a waterlogged track**
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!
Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1.20 – Ladbrokes Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV4
9/9 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/9 – 1st or 2nd last time out
8/9 – Between 1-2 Chase wins before
8/9 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Favourites placed in top 2
7/9 – Irish or French bred
7/9 – Won last time out
6/9 – Aged 5 years-old
4/9 – Ran at Sandown last time out
4/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/9 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/9 – Winning favourite
2/9 – Had won over fences at Kempton before
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: After the way the Nicky Henderson-trained SHISHKIN jumped and won on his chase debut here last month and having also won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival last season, looks another high-class chaser in the making for the Seven Barrows camp. Of the rest, we can expect Gumball to make a bold bid from the front and he was set to run a big race last time at Cheltenham until falling two fences out – I think he’d probably have won that day, but he’s likely to set the race up for Shishkin here and get picked off in the closing stages. However, if his jumping holds up, I think he could be filling the second place.
1.55 – Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side On Football Mares´ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m110y ITV
13/13 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
12/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
11/13 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
10/13 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
9/13 – Favourites that were placed in the top 3
8/13 – Won over 3m previously
6/13 – Won their last race
6/13 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/13 – Ran at the track previously
5/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Aged 5 years-old
2/13 – Raced at Newbury last time out
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: BANNIXTOWN GLORY
DANGER: PERFECT MYTH
2.30 – Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV
11/13 – Aged 8 or younger
10/13 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
10/13 – Run at the track previously
9/13 – Won 4 (or more) times over fences
10/13 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
9/13 – Winning favourites
9/13 – Officially Rated 160+
7/13 – French bred
7/13 – Ran at Sandown last time out
4/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
Bun Doran (4/1) won the race in 2019
Altior (1/8 fav) won the race in 2018
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Bun Doran won this race 12 months ago, but it looked a poor renewal that year and it will be a shock if he’s following up here, especially with ALTIOR in the race. Yes, all the focus will be on the 2018 winner of this race – Altior – as he returns to the track and starts his preparation for another tilt at the Champion Chase in March. Many will look to Altior’s age (10) as a negative, but he’s been fairly lightly-raced in recent seasons and these 2m chasers do have a history of still running well when into a double-figure age. He’s still rated 172 and that is 9lbs higher than his nearest rivals – Sceau Royal and Rouge Vif. The former has had a busy time of it of late and still remains a lively contender if Altior isn’t quite the horse he was, but it was only back in February that Altior beat him 3 ¼ lengths in the Game Spirit Chase. Rouge Vif was a good winner at Cheltenham on his return this season but put in his place in the Tingle Creek last time out and on that evidence still has a bit to prove at this top level for me. With that in mind, Sceau Royal looks the most likely danger to Altior, but Duc Des Genievres was a fair runner-up in this race last year and seems to have returned this term as good as ever when running Put The Kettle On close at Cheltenham last time – just getting tired in the closing stages.
3.05 – Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV
13/13 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
12/13 – Priced between 7/2 and 12/1
12/13 – Aged 8 or younger
11/13 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
10/13 – Won between 2-3 (chase) before
8/13 – Favourites Unplaced
5/13 – Officially Rated between 122-129
5/13 – Ran at Kempton previously
5/13 – Won over 3m (or further) previously
4/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
3/13 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
3/13 – Winning favourites (joint)
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: DARLAC
DANGER: ADRIEN DU PONT
Chepstow Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)
**Cancelled due to a waterlogged track**
1.05 – Watch Racing For Free At Coral Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3 1/2f ITV4
16/17 – French (9) or Irish (7) bred
15/17 – Won over 2 ½ miles (fences) previously
14/17 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
13/17 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
13/17 – Won between 2-3 times (fences) previously
11/17 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
10/17 – Placed in the first three last time out
8/17 – Aged 7 or younger
6/17 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
6/17 – Won their last race
5/17 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/17 – Trained by Charlie Mann
2/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/17 – Ridden by Charlie Deutsch
Tiguer won this race in 2019
Doitforthevillage won this race in 2018
Aso won this race in 2016
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: ASO
DANGER: ESPIRIT DU LARGE
1.40 – Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Cl1 (3yo) 2m ITV4
15/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
14/16 – Won between 0-2 times previously
11/16 – French bred
9/16 – Won their last race
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Raced at the track previously
4/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: ELHAM VALLEY
DANGER: GOLD DESERT
2.15 – Coral ‘Fail To Finish’ Free Bets Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 2m 7 1/2f
16/18 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
15/18 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/18 – Won between 1-3 times previously over hurdles
13/18 – Irish bred
13/18 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
12/18 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/18 – Ran at Chepstow previously
10/18 – Won over 3m previously
9/18 – Carried between 11-2 and 11-11 in weight
8/18 – Officially Rated 120 or less
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/18 – Won their last race
Note: The 2011 running was a dead-heat
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: STORM ARISING
DANGER: EXPLOITEUR
2.50 – Coral Welsh Grand National (A Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV
18/18 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
18/18 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
18/18 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
16/18 – Aged 9 or younger
16/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/18 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
13/18 – Aged 8 or younger
12/18 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
12/18 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
12/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
7/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – French bred
6/18 – Had run in the Welsh National before
5/18 – Ran at Chepstow last time out
3/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 10/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Secret Reprieve will be all the rage here after bolting up in the Welsh National Trial here last time out. He’s only up 4lbs for that and has just 10-1 to carry so a similar run would make him very hard to beat. However, unless you were on at bigger prices, he certainly doesn’t look much value in a race that will be run in gruelling conditions, while this Evan Williams horse still have to prove this 3m7f trip is within range – the furthest he’s gone to date is 3m. Overall, it’s hard to crab his chance, but he’s not for me at the prices. Christmas In April and The Two Amigos, who was 12 lengths second to Secret Reprieve, are the only two proven distance winners in the field so command respect based on that. But the three I like against the hot favourite are last year’s second and third – TRUCKERS LODGE, YALA ENKI and CLOUDY GLEN. The first-named, who was only beaten 1 ¾ lengths in the race last year, will have no stamina issues having won the Midlands National last season and is also a course winner here. He’s got his fair share of weight (11-8) but regular pilot Lorcan Williams takes off a handy 3lbs, while the Nicholls camp have a fair record in this race with wins in 2004 and 2005. Yala Enki is another from the Paul Nicholls yard and was a running on third in the race 12 months ago. Heavy ground is fine and even though he’s a horse that is hard to win with these days, he’s often not far away in these races and with assured stamina that’s an obvious plus. Finally, Cloudy Glen is a bit of a rule to himself, but on his day clearly a talented staying chaser. He won easily at Fontwell in the Southern National back in November but despite flopping at Sandown last time was well-supported that day. This track should suit him better and he’s a course winner (hurdles) here too. Heavy ground is fine and he gets in here with a nice racing weight of 10-12. Of the rest, the likes of Ramses De Teillee and Springfield Fox, who are both course winners, can run well too, while last year’s fourth in the race – Prime Venture – is another leading player from the Evan Williams yard, who will be hoping to be another locally-trained winner of this race.
