One of the highlights of the jump calendar this Saturday as we’ve day two of the Cheltenham November Meeting – four LIVE ITV races to take in from Prestbury Park that include the BetVictor Gold Cup, while we’ve also two decent Listed races at Lingfield as the AW winter season starts to move up a few notches.
Did you know that 12 of the last 17 BetVictor Gold Cup winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old?
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get GOING!
Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
12.05 – Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Hyde Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f ITV
15/15 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
15/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/15 – Had won a NH Flat race earlier in their career
12/15 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (2 winners)
12/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
11/15 – Had raced at Uttoxeter (4), Chepstow (5) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
10/15 – Aged 5 years-old
9/15 – Won just once before (under rules)
9/15 – Had won over 2 ½m (or further) over hurdles before
8/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/15 – Went onto win a race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
BEST BET: CHAMPAGNE WELL
DANGERS: THYME HILL, SOME DAY SOON
12.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Registered as The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m87y RacingTV
14/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/14 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
12/14 – Never raced at Cheltenham before
11/14 – Returned 4/1 or shorter
11/14 – Won last time out
10/14 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Went onto race in that seasons Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
9/14 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 2
7/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Went onto finish 1st or 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle
4/14 – German bred
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/14 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/14 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Went onto win the Triumph Hurdle (Defi Du Seuill 2017, Katchit 2006)
Owner JP McManus has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
BEST BET: MICK PASTOR
DANGERS: BOTOX HAS, ALLMANKIND
1.15 – mallardjewellers.com Novices´ Chase Cl2 3m80y RacingTV
14/14 – Had won a race over at least 2m4f (fences) before
12/14 – Aged 7 or younger
11/14 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
11/14 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
10/14 – Won between 0-1 times over fences before
10/14 – Raced no more than twice over fences
10/14 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/14 – Raced at Cheltenham (3), Aintree (3) or Wetherby (2) last time out
8/14 – Aged 6 years-old
7/14 – Went onto run in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival that season (no winners)
7/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Trained by David Pipe
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
BEST BET: WHOLESTONE
DANGERS: MINELLA WARRIOR, AARON LAD
1.50 – BetVictor Smartcards Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m3f110y ITV
16/17 – Had won a 3m+ race over fences before
15/17 – Had run at Cheltenham before
14/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Aged 8 or younger
12/17 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
11/17 – Had won between 3 and 5 times over fences before
10/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
8/17 – Officially rated between 135 and 146
8/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
7/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/17 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Sandown (2) last time out
6/17 – French bred
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/17 – Trained by Fergal O’Brien (2 of last 6 years)
Rock The Kasbah (9/1) won the race in 2018
Perfect Candidate (7/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1
BEST BET: POP ROCKSTAR
DANGERS: RAMESES DE TEILLEE, WEST APPROACH
2.25 – BetVictor Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f110y ITV
17/17 – Had run at Cheltenham before
16/17 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
16/17 – Won by a UK-based trainer
13/17 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Had won at Cheltenham before
12/17 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/17 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
11/17 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3)
11/17 – Carried 10-13 or less (But 4 of the last 7 carried 10-13 or more)
11/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/17 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
9/17 – Aged 7 years-old
8/17 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
8/17 – Placed favourites
5/17 – Won their last race
4/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
4/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/17 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/17 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
2/17 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 10 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 37 runners
Baron Alco (8/1) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 10/1
We saw the Gary Moore yard win the race 12 months ago with Baron Alco and they will be trying to add to that success with Dell Oro. However, it’s a prize that’s been dominated by the Jonjo O’Neill, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Paul Nicholls and Pipe yard in recent years – between them, they’ve won 11 of the last 17 renewals! O’Neill doesn’t have runner, but Pipe has Warthog & Eamon An Cnoic, who was 5th in this race last year, Nicholls has Magic Saint & Brelan D’As, while Twiston-Davies saddles his 2017 winner, Splash Of Ginge and COUNT MERIBEL (e/w). And it’s the last-named that catches the eye. This 7 year-old returned to the track last month with a fair second to the useful Lostintranslation up at Carlisle, plus was a Novice Chase winner at this meeting last season. Looking at his form, he seems to act on any ground and also stays a bit further than this 2m4f, which will help in conditions. He also ticks most of the main trends, while this 7 year-old also seems to have a good record at this time of the year – 4 of his 5 career wins have been in November – the other came in October! Of the rest, Festival winner – Siruh Du Lac – was a gutsy winner of the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase back in March and there is a chance we’ve not got to the bottom of him yet, having won 6 of his 8 chase starts. Lizzie Kelly is back to ride and can claim 3lbs too, but he is 9lbs higher than last time out. Spiritofthegames (3rd) and Eamon An Cnoic (4th) also ran well at that same Festival race last March and cases can certainly be made for them too. Slate House has been popular in the betting all week for the Colin Tizzard yard. He’s a prove CD winner after winning well here last month on heavy ground so conditions are fine, but he is up a big-looking 12lbs for that. It would be no shock to see him run well, but he’s got a bit to prove still and the value looks to have gone anyway. GUITAR PETE was a solid third in the race last year and returned a few weeks ago to win well at Wetherby. He beat Happy Diva, who also runs here, but 3 ½ lengths, so should be able to confirm that form on just 2lbs worse terms. With 13 top three finishes from his 23 runs over fences then he’s a consistent sort that is sure to run his race again, despite being rated 4lbs higher than 12 months ago in this race. Nicholls’ Brelan D’As unseated in the race Saint Calvados (now a non-runner) won here recently, so has to bounce back, but with only 10-5 in weight can’t be ruled out with Barry Geragthy riding too. However, it’s the other Nicholls runner – MAGIC SAINT (e/w) that might be worth chancing too. This 5 year-old might lack a bit of experience but Nicholls won this race with a horse the same age in 2014. He’s also had a wind op since last season and has won in heavy ground in France. The trip is a slight unknown, but he has won over 2m2f and run 2nd over 2m5f to suggest it’s within range. He’s also a horse that’s gone well off a break and, as mentioned, the Nicholls camp love to target this race so is sure to be tuned-up and ready to go.
3.00 – Spinal Injuries Association Big Bucks Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f67y ITV
15/17 – Aged 7 or younger
14/17 – Carried 10-11 or less in weight
14/17 – Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins
13/17 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
12/17 – Officially rated 126 to 137
12/17 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
12/17 – Placed favourites
12/17 – Ran at either Cheltenham (6), Aintree (3) or Chepstow (3) last time out
11/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
9/17 – Had run at Cheltenham before
8/17 – Won their last race
7/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/17 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/17 – Won by an Irish-trained stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
4 of the last 11 winners have had a claiming jockey riding
Anteros won the race in 2016 & was second in 2017
First Assignment won the race in 2018
BEST BET: EVA’S OSKAR (e/w)
DANGERS: TOBEFAIR, ANTEROS
3.30 – BetVictor Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f26y ITV
13/14 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/14 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
11/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/14 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
8/14 – Returned a double-figure price
7/14 – Favourites unplaced
7/14 – Carried 10-13 or less
7/14 – Had run at Cheltenham before
7/14 – Irish bred winners
6/14 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a race at the Cheltenham Festival
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – French bred winners
2/14 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Winning favourites
Speedo Boy (4/1 jfav) won the race in 2018
2 of the last 6 winners went onto be placed in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
2 of the last 10 winners went onto be placed in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season
BEST BET: JATILUWIH
DANGERS: FALCO BLITZ, CONRON
Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)
2.45 – Betway Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV
11/13 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Rated between 102 and 112
10/13 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
9/13 – Won between 1-4 times before
9/13 – Favourites placed in the top two
8/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/13 – Placed last time out
8/13 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Master The World (10/1) won the race in 2017 and 2018
It’s hard to look beyond the John Gosden-trained LORD NORTH here. This 3 year-old has 12lbs in-hand at the weights based on the official ratings and with Frankie Dettori making the effort to ride him at this time of year is another big plus. Caradoc, Crossed Baton, Kuwait Currency and the CD winner, Pactolus can chase him home. While if you are looking for one at a price then with the Neil King yard having a 36% strike-rate with their runners at the track (5 from 14), then despite having a bit to find at the weights their Petite Jack might go well if you can fine top 3 or 4 placed markets.
3.15 – Betway Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV
12/12 – Previous winner over 6f or 7f
11/12 – Didn’t win last time out
11/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Aged 4 or older
9/12 – Won 5 or more times before
8/12 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
8/12 – Unplaced last time out
8/12 – Unplaced favourites
4/12 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
Gifted Master (9/2) won the race in 2017
Encrypted won the race in 2018
Some familiar names on show here, including the 2017 winner of this race – GIFTED MASTER. This 6 year-old heads here as the second top-rated in the field – with only Judicial, who is yet to win beyond 5 1/2f, ahead of him. However, this Hugo Palmer runner receives a handy 3lbs from that runner and being he’s a proven CD winner as well, then he gets the nod. He returned to the track last time here over 7f with a fine second – he was also fifth in this race last year but that recent outing should have him spot-on for this as the yard look for their third win in this contest in as many years. Of the others, Above The Rest was a solid fourth in this race last year and can go well again, while Corinthia Knight was sixth. However, the danger can come from the Dettori-ridden STAKE ACCLAIM. The pocket Italian has a 36% record riding 4+ year-olds at the course, while it’s interesting the horse is actually having it’s first run at the track. Draw 3 looks ideal and the last time Frankie rode this 7 year-old they finished second in a Group 3 in France (Aug 19).
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