Some nice winners last week for the Saturday TV trends & tips so hoping for more of the same this weekend as the ITV cameras head to Newmarket, Ascot and Redcar to take in seven LIVE races.
At Redcar, we’ve got the Two-Year-Old Trophy as their feature contest, while at Newmarket the Group One Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes centre stage – a race the French have won 5 times in the last 18 years. Then at Ascot we’ve four more races that include the Cumberland Lodge and John Guest Bengough Stakes, plus the ultra-competitive Challenge Cup Handicap.
Did you know that 16 of the last 18 Cumberland Lodge favourites have been placed?
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get going!
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR) – Cancelled (Waterlogged track)
1.55 – tote.co.uk Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4
16/16 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
16/16 – Won over 5f before
15/16 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Aged 5 or younger
12/16 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
12/16 – Rated 101 or higher
10/16 – Had won between 3-7 times before
9/16 – Unplaced last time out
8/16 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
8/16 – Raced at Newbury last time out
7/16 – Irish bred
3/16 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Michael Dods (last two runnings)
Dakota Gold (15/8 fav) won the race in 2019
12 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 11 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Michael Dods-trained Dakota Gold won this race 12 months ago and should make a bold bid to follow-up. He’s a consisten sprinter at this level and is also one of just two proven CD winners in the field and the joint top-rated in the line-up. However, with 12 of the last 13 winners coming from stalls 11 or lower, then draw 14 might be seen as a negative, while he was beaten 1 ½ lengths by Tarboosh last time out so has ground to make up in that one. Tis Marvellous was fourth in this race last year too and commands respect, while Maygold was 6th. Aljady is arguably the form horse in the race – having won his last two – and three of his last four. He can go well and any rain would help his cause too. But another that won’t mind any more of the wet stuff is MAID IN INDIA. This 6 year-old ran a cracker in a G1 in Ireland (4th) last time too and is also a previous G3 winner, so this drop into a Listed race will help. She also gets a handy fillies’ allowance and 8lbs off the likes of Dakota Gold and Tarboosh, plus having winning form over 6f this stiff track should suit her too. Of the rest, Moss Gill is the other joint top-rated in the field so has to be considered too.
2.30 – tote.co.uk Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV4
17/18 – Finished fourth or better last time out
16/18 – Placed favourites
15/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
15/18 – Had won over 1m4f before
14/18 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/18 – Won at Listed or Group class before
13/18 – Had raced at the course before (6 won)
11/18 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
11/18 – Had 5 or more runs that season
11/18 – Had won 4 or more times before
10/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – Favourites to win
6/18 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
2/18 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
1/18 – Filly or mare winners
11 of the last 12 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
Morando (2/1 fav) won the race in 2019
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Some old favourites here, but it’s hard to see beyond the John Gosden runner – LOGICIAN – here. This popular grey heads to this easier option instead of running in the Arc on Sunday and it should pay off. He’s yet to lose a race from 6 outings and last year’s St Leger winner returned last month with an easy win at Donny. He’s rated 118 and that’s a clear 6lbs higher than his nearest rival – Alounak (112). Morando, who won this race last year, and Desert Encounter are proven CD winners so look strong contenders to fight out the places, while Highland Chief is another to note on that score. The other interesting one is Litigator, who runs for the Roger Varian yard for the first time after a fair campaign when trained in France. This is a big step up in grade but if the ground came up really soft then that would certainly be in his favour.
3.05 – tote.co.uk Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4
17/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
15/18 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
15/18 – Won over 7f previously
13/18 – Had raced within the last 30 days
13/18 – Raced at Ascot previously
11/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/18 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
9/18 – Raced 7 or more times that season
8/18 – Returned a double-figure price
8/18 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
6/18 – Raced at Ayr last time out
5/18 – Favourites to win
2/18 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/18 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/18 – Won their previous race
0/18 – Filly or mare winners
8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-1 or more in weight
The last 10 winners were aged 6 or younger
7 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 12 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
4 of the last 12 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
The last two winners came from stall 17
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1
Kynren (11/4 fav) won the race in 2019
Raising Sand (5/1) won the race in 2018 and was third in 2017
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: 18 runners head to post here, but hopefully some of the trends can help whittle down the field. With ALL of the last 10 winners aged 6 or younger this against the likes of the 2018 winner of this race – Raising Sands (8) and last year’s runner-up Greenside (9). We’ve also got last year’s winner in the race again – KYNREN (e/w) – in the race and despite being rated 4lbs higher this time, it’s interesting that connections are offsetting that with jockey – William Carver’s 5lb claim. He’s a horse that acts well on any ground and ran well on his return run after 3 months off in the Ayr Gold Cup recently – beaten just 2 lengths by the classy Nahaarr. Trainer Roger Charlton has a good record in the race so his proven CD winner, Blue Mist – but does have a bit to prove after a well beaten favourite here last time out. River Nymph is an improver that’s won it’s last two, while the horses from stalls 10 and 11 have done well at being placed in recent years – Revich (10) and Raising Sands (11). The other pick though is to take a chance on the Charlie Fellowes-trained KING OTTOKAR (e/w). This 4 year-old hasn’t quite progressed as many thought but is interesting dropped back to 7f. The horse has won over 1m2f, but is not short of pace and last time over a mile did okay (5th of 12) considering he didn’t get a clear run. He’s dropped a further 2lbs and won’t mind the ground if it comes up soft.
3.40 – John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV4
12/12 – Won over 6f previously
12/12 – Officially rated 100 or higher
10/12 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
10/12 – Won 4 or more times previously
10/12 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
7/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
6/12 – Raced 6 or more times that season
5/12 – Won their previous race
3/12 – Returned a double-figure price
4/12 – Favourites to win
2/12 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
2/12 – Trained by Roger Charlton
Cape Byron (13/8 fav) won the race in 2019
The last 2 winners came from stalls 6
Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 6 of the last 9 runnings (3 wins)
Horses from stall 5 and 7 have won 5 of the last 9 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Tin Man would certainly have a big chance on his old form, but based on his recent runs at the age of 8 now you just feel he’s on a big of a downward curve. On a plus, he’d not mind any rain and this drop in grade will help. Brad The Brief and Raucous are the two recent winners in the field so head here full of confidence, but it’s still hard to get away from CAPE BYRON – who won this race 12 months ago. Those against him might look to the fact he’s been off the track for almost a year, so he’s clearly had some issues, but he’s gone well fresh in the past and having won four times here at Ascot, clearly loves this place.
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)
1.40 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV4
Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Carried between 8-4 and 8-11 in weight
5/5 – Foaled Feb or later
4/5 – Rated between 79-85
4/5 – Won from a double-figure draw
4/5 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
4/5 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
3/5 – Won just one before
3/5 – First 3 home came from double-figure draws
1/5 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 8/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A valuable race for these 2 year-olds but the ratings suggest the Archie Watson runner – MIGHTY GURKHA – is the one to beat. He’s on a mark of 104 after winning a Group Three at Kempton last time out and that’s the best form on offer here. Yes, any of the other unexposed runners could improve further but with five career runs that experience will be another big asset for the selection, while a certain Hollie Doyle in the saddle is the icing on the cake. Of the rest, Fairy Dust has shown a good level of form having been second in a Listed race two runs back and gets in with a featherweight here (8-2), while getting a handy 4lbs off the main pick, Perotto is another to note. This juvenile will find things easier than the G2 Flying Childers he ran in last time and has the in-form William Buick in the saddle. Country Carnival should also run well – she gets a lot of weight from Watson horse, but the big question mark would be the trip with his best runs coming over shorter – she needs to prove she stays this 6f. The final one to mention is the James Tate runner – ELECTRIC BLUE (e/w). The yard won this race last year, albeit with a better-fancied runner but despite not winning yet, this horse has finished in the first three on all four of her races and is another that gets in with a low weight of 8-6.
2.10 – British EBF Premier Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4
Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/4 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
4/4 – Favourites placed in the first three
3/4 – Didn’t win last time out
3/4 – Won just once before
2/4 – Had won over 1m2f before
2/4 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 9/2
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Some promising sorts on show here, with Moll Davis, Wonderous Words, La Dragontea and Kaleidoscopic certainly some that fall into that category. But I’ve been taken with the progression from the William Haggas runner – OTI MA BOATI (e/w) – recently and am happy to stick with her. She’s won her last two in decent fashion and both wins came on varied ground – good-to-firm and soft. The step up from 1m to 1m2f could bring out more as she’s certainly been finishing off her races well. The only niggle would be that she didn’t run too well at the track last season but that was over 7f and I feel she’s a much better horse now. Of the others, Ryan Moore will catch the eye riding the John Gosden-trained Moonlight In Paris, but after four runs this one doesn’t look a stable superstar and Moore couldn’t work his magic on the horse when they ran over this course and distance in June. It might be worth also having an interest in AFFABLE, who bolted-up on the July course here last time. Yes, she’s up 10lbs for that and in a better race, but still only gets in with 8st3lbs to carry and that’s a stone less than last time. That was her career first win so there is also every chance that confidence will see her kick on too, while it was also her first run on soft ground, so could easily just be a horse that’s better with give – connections will be praying for the rain.
2.45 – Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV4
14/16 – Had won over at least 1m before
14/16 – Previous Group winners
12/16 – Won between 3-5 times before
12/16 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Rated between 113 and 119
11/16 – Previous Group One winners
8/16 – Aged 3 years-old
6/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
5/16 – French-trained winners
5/16 – Raced at Deauville last time out
5/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 4)
2/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The last 13 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Horses from stall 1 have won 5 of the last 14 runnings
Horses from stalls 1 (4) or 7 (2) or 9 (2) have won 8 of the last 10
Billesdon Brook (16/1) won the race in 2019 (Veracious 2nd)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A decent renewal of this Group One race and we get a chance to also see last year’s winner, Billesdon Brook and runner-up Veracious – lining up again. Both can run well and with the likes of Terebellum for Godolphin, who is the top-rated in the field, and the Gosden runner – Nazeef – then cases can be made for that pair too as both are also proven course winners. But the Irish could hold the key here – Champers Of Elysees – landed the G1 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown last time out and has now won her last four races. She’s clearly a rapidly improving filly and is the one to beat. She also had the Aidan O’Brien runner – PEACEFUL – back in second that day, but I think with Ryan Moore taking over she can turn the tables. There was 1 ¼ lengths between them that day, but the O’Brien horse was returning off 2 months off so can be expected to have come on for that. The yard has also won 2 of the last 4 runnings of this race and being she stays further than this 1m trip we should see Moore making full use of that proven stamina. Of the rest, French raider Half Light probably isn’t coming over for a day trip, while 1,000 Guineas runner-up CLOAK OF SPIRITS (e/w) is a tough sort that got back to winning ways at this track last time out and despite this being a step up again is a horse that likes this course – form here reads 3-2-1 – and might just be able to nick a place.
Redcar Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)
3.25 – William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4
15/18 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
14/18 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
13/18 – Had won 1 or 2 previous races
12/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/18 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
10/18 – Foaled in March or later
9/18 – Had won over 6f before
8/18 – Unplaced favourites
5/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Filly winners
5/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/18 – Trained by Tim Easterby (4 wins in total)
2/18 – Trained by Stan Moore
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Another tricky renewal as a lot of these 2 year-olds can improve significantly from their opening races. The Richard Fahey yard have a good record in the race, so their Blind Beggar, Sands In Time, Shark Two One and Ventura Diamond are interesting, while the Stan Moore camp have also had success in this race so their Papas Girl is worth noting in the market. Spright is certainly going the right way too, having won her last two and gets the fillies’ allowance here so only has 8st 7lbs to carry. Uncle Jumbo, Gussy Mac, Zamaani and the Queen’s Collinsbay are all 90+ rated runners that have the form to go well, while Bowman is the only proven CD winner in the line-up so that must count for something. But the one I’m going to pin my money on is the Ralph Beckett runner – LULLABY MOON. This filly was an excellent third in a G3 at Ayr last time out – beaten just 2 lengths. She handles soft ground well having won the time before easily at Goodwood on heavy ground. Rossa Ryan, who is 1-from-1 on the horse gets the leg-up.
