Racing Ahead tipster Ben Morgan offers his thoughts on a sparkling first day Festival racecard at Cheltenham.
Check out Betway’s latest Cheltenham betting markets for all the races across this week
1.20 – Hoping hard Work pays off in Supreme
The market will tell you that Kopek Des Bordes has this race at his mercy but I think it’s a little deeper than you think and his ability will certainly be tested.
He looked a world beater last time out at Leopardstown but I always like to see it twice before I believe it and he will certainly have to settle better than he has done so far in his races as I don’t think you will win a Supreme pulling your jockey’s arms out.
Stablemate Salavtor Mundi has been a bit of a talking horse and Romeo Coolio has been going about his business quietly.
William Munny has been a late springer in the market but he has to reverse form with WORKAHEAD who is my selection in the race and can be backed at 13/2 with Betway.
Henry De Bromhead’s novice caught my attention when destroying a strong field at Leopardstown at Christmas, a race which has worked out well since.
The way he jumped is what impressed me most about the performance as I don’t think he touched a twig on his way around.
His jump at the third last before turning in arguably won him the race and if he jumps as well on Tuesday then he will be hard to peg back if they do attempt to make all of the running.
Being slightly older than most here might also play to his advantage, especially with some of his rivals having doubts about their temperament so I think he rates a solid each way play here.
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2.00 – Sticking with Sud in the Arkle
Given I hold some juicy ante post slips on LEAU DU SUD at 40/1 for the Arkle, it might be a bit of pocket tipping the fact I’m putting him up here but tactically I think he has a great chance of upsetting the hot favourite.
It looks like at least 3 of his four other rivals are going to want to get on with this which should allow Harry Skelton to scoot around at the back and have one run at Majborough at the back of the last.
I believe his best performance has come when allowed to get a tow into a race and the better ground will also be a big plus for him.
I’ve always seen Majborough as a stayer and I think he could be vulnerable in a tactical race over 2 miles. At 9/2 with Betway he looks the best value bet in the race.
2.40 – Two darts to fire in the Ultima
I don’t think this is a vintage renewal of the Ultima Handicap Chase and the youngsters at the top of the market might not have it all their own way.
I like horses in this race who have ran well in the Ultima or at least at Cheltenham before and you can tick a few off your list straight away if you follow that line of thought.
My main hope this year is going to be FAMOUS BRIDGE who finished a distant fourth last year.
Nicky Richards’ classy stayer has followed an upward trajectory for most of his career and again this season he has rewarded connections with a victory last time out in the Grand National trial at Haydock.
A strong stayer who seems to handle any ground, has a few pounds more on his back this year but I don’t think there is a Chianti Classico in here this year so should be able to handle the extra burden.
This race tends to turn into a stamina test, as it should given the trip, and if he is there or thereabouts turning in, I don’t think many will pass him up the hill. At 18/1 with Betway he is a juicy each way price.
King Turgeon
My other dart is going to be KING TURGEON who represents David Pipe who has a good record in this race.
A really progressive type early on in the season, his momentum was halted the last twice when finishing third at Wincanton before being pulled up at Musselburgh.
I wouldn’t be too disheartened with those efforts however as the Wincanton race has turned out to be strong form and a fast pace, turning 4 miles around Musselburgh isn’t everyone’s cup of tea.
It does mean however that he lines up on Tuesday with only 6lb more on his back than he had in December when he outstayed a decent field.
He looks an Aintree type in time but this race would look like an obvious target first, a path which Pipe has followed many times before. Betway are offering 14/1 and that seems fair enough to me.
3.20 – July ready to Flower in the Mares Hurdle
If you haven’t worked it out yet, I am a value punter and I do like to take on the short price favourites.
If you want to back them at odds on, that’s fine but I’d rather find a price to come second and get a better margin.
I certainly wouldn’t want to be backing Lossiemouth at odds on after she fell last time at Leopardstown.
I’ve been punting horses long enough to notice that horses do remember a fall and they aren’t always the same after it.
I’m not saying she won’t win this by 5 but that fall certainly represents a chink in the armour and I’m keen to expose it.
I will be supporting JULY FLOWER in this race as I think Henry De Bromhead’s mare is going to be cherry ripe for this.
Like Workahead, De Bromhead has kept her fresh for this and so often his horses outperform here at Cheltenham as he gets them to the boil ready for this week.
Since Lossiemouth’s inclusion here, the selection has drifted with many firms and is 17/2 with Betway which pleased me as I was playing with 4/1 last week.
She looked all class last time out and connections are expecting further improvement here so she rates a dangerous opponent to the favourite given that she stays further as well.
A strong run 2m 4f would suit and I can certainly see her giving the favourite most to think about.
4.00 – Constitution set to be crowned Champion
The inclusion of Brighterdaysahead here certainly makes this a race to savour but people seriously thinking she can beat the favourite can’t have seen CONSTITUTION HILL before.
This is potentially the best hurdler we have seen grace a racetrack and the only horse we have seen get him off the bridle was Sir Gino is a racecourse gallop.
The challenge the mare faces is huge and although Gigginstown can put a pacemaker in there I only think that helps the favorite.
I’m sure Nico is going to put a marker on Jack Kennedy’s back throughout the race and follow her every step of the way because I don’t think stamina is an issue for him.
If he turns in on the shoulder of the mare, with Nico still hard on the steel, I think the roof might just come off the Club enclosure.
Betway are currently offering 4/7 but I think he could drift tomorrow as support comes for Brighterdaysahead.
4.40 – Sony Bill to throw knockout punch in Fred Winter
Paul Townend’s presence on SONY BILL will certainly catch some attention as his handicap rides are at a premium at the festival, especially those in the Fred Winter.
Willie Mullins has gone on record and said this race has been the plan for Sony Bill for some time and given he has looked outclassed in the top juvenile races in Ireland this year, it would appear the right race to run him in.
Whether he has been 100% ready to rock and roll in those races remains unknown but I would certainly like to be on his side here at 11/1 with Betway.
5.20 – Splash of Couleurs to round off Day 1
The National Hunt Chase has been revamped this year with it now being a handicap and that change has certainly brought about more runners which has to be a positive.
I’ve had HAITI COULEURS earmarked for this race for some time and although he is skinny enough at 4/1 I do still want to be with him.
Rebecca Curtis has protected his chase mark since his dominant victory here in December by running him in a hurdle race at Newbury.
He performed with credit there and that race would have teed him up nicely for Tuesday. He gets in with a nice weight and with the extra distance set to bring about plenty of improvement, I think he rates the bet in the finale.
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