Friday
The flat season is starting to move in earnest now and more clues will be revealed at Newbury today. The novices and maidens are watching briefs for me but the handicaps are always worth a punt in. With conditions on the softer side I will be disappointed if CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD isn’t able to run a big race off his current mark. Jack Channon’s charge is a solid yardstick at this sort of level and his losing streak doesn’t give a true reflection of his ability. He nearly won a good handicap at Newmarket this time last year which suggests this may be the time to catch him, especially with a run under his belt. At 25/1 he looks far too big and is worth each way support.
The Scottish Grand National meeting kicks off today and I will be interested to see how soft the ground actually is before going too crazy. One horse who I think will outrun his odds is HELTENHAM who will really appreciate the softer conditions and stiffer track. His best runs have come at Newbury where he has time to cruise into his races so the stiff nature of Ayr should play to his strengths. He wasn’t given a hard time at Aintree last week after it was clear he couldn’t win so fitness shouldn’t be an issue.
Newbury 2.12 – Chairmanoftheboard
Ayr 2.50 – Heltenham
Saturday
A good weekend of action ahead with some nice handicaps to have a go at. At Newbury the Spring Cup looks competitive as usual but I think I’ve found two that are over priced. LATTAM is 7/1 in most places but you can find 10/1 still and I think that is very good value. Julie Camacho’s new purchase always threatened to be a bit better than a handicapper when under the care of William Haggas but couldn’t quite make the step up but judging on his first run for his new stable I think it is still quite possible. A staying on 2nd from an unpromising position in the Lincoln was eye catching and proof he is in good heart. He was second in this race last year and if Camacho has eked out more improvement then he could take all the beating.
At a much bigger price I think REVICH is worth supporting as he is a standing dish in these sort of races and will relish underfoot conditions unlike some of his rivals. 50/1 is too big and I advise finding some extra places.
Up at Ayr, I’m very keen on FAVOUR AND FORTUNE who bids to back up a solid run in the Supreme with a big run here. Drying ground will be a big help and the 16/1 I snaffled on Monday looks very big now. Leau Du Sud will be hard to beat but the unexposed novice could be very well handicapped off 138.
In the big one itself I expect WHACKER CLAN to go well if the ground is drying. He went well for a long way in the Kim Muir but was beaten by 2 well handicapped horses who appreciated the ground much more than he did. He sneaks in down the bottom here and could still be ahead of the British handicapper.
I think it’s interesting that Paul Towned has opted for SPANISH HARLEM and I think if he does stay the trip then he has a fantastic chance of winning. A mark of 140 looks workable and he seems to have been saved for a big race in the Spring so maybe the stars have aligned here.
Newbury 3.15 – Lattam / Revich
Ayr 2.25 – Favour And Fortune
Ayr 3.35 – Whacker Clan / Spanish Harlem
