Loads to look forward to this Saturday with something for everyone as the ITV cameras are at Doncaster & Newbury for some decent flat action, plus they are also over the jumps for the first time this season (on a Saturday) at Cheltenham.
Yes, jump racing is back at the home of the National Hunt – Cheltenham – with a cracking card or which five races at LIVE on ITV4. Then at Newbury, we’ve two decent Group Three contests to look forward too, while the LIVE ITV action concludes with three races from Doncaster that are spearheaded by the Group One Vertum Futurity Trophy Stakes – a prize that top Irish handler – Aidan O’Brien – has won a massive nine times!
As always, here at RACING AHEAD we got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus once the entries are out our free tips………let’s get cracking!
Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)
3.00 – Carlsberg Marstons Doncaster Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4
14/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/14 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
13/14 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower
13/14 – Foaled in February or later
12/14 – Won between 1-2 times before
12/14 – Had won over 6f before
11/14 – Won last time out
11/14 – Carried 9-1 in weight
11/14 – Favourites placed in the top 3
10/14 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
10/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/14 – Raced at York, Nottingham or Kempton last time out
7/14 – March-born foals
7/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/14 – Trained by Brian Meehan
Trainer Marco Botti has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
BEST BET: AESOP’S FABLES
DANGER: HISPANIC
3.35 – Vertem Futurity Trophy (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) ITV4 1m
18/20 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
17/20 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
17/20 – Placed favourites
17/20 – Foaled in February or later
16/20 – Finished in the top two last time out
16/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
15/20 – Had raced at least twice previously
13/20 – Winning favourites
13/20 – Foaled in either Feb or March
13/20 – Ran at either the Curragh or Newmarket last time out
12/20 – Won their last race
11/20 – Had won over a mile in the past
9/20 – Won by an Irish-based yard
7/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
4/20 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (won 4 of the last 9)
4/20 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas (inc 3 of the last 5 winners)
3/20 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
1/20 – Went onto win the St Leger
Five winners have gone onto win the following season’s Epsom Derby
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 10 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017, 2018 & 2021
The average SP in the last 20 runnings is 13/2
BEST BET: AUGUSTE RODIN
DANGER: STORMBUSTER
4.10 – At The Races App Form Study Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4
18/18 – Ran 5 or more times that season
17/18 – Had won over 5f before
15/18 – Aged 5 or younger
14/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/18 – Had run at Doncaster before (5 won)
11/18 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
11/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/18 – Carried 8-10 or less
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Ran at Pontefract (3) or Ayr (2) last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Winners from stall 1
2/18 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 8)
1/18 – Winning mare/filly
Copper Knight won the race in 2021 (dead-heat)
10 of the last 15 winners came from a double-figure stall
Note: The 2021 running was a dead-heat
BEST BET: COME FROM THE DARK
DANGER: COUNT D’ORSAY
Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.50 – Virgin Bet Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV4
17/18 – Foaled in Feb or later
15/18 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Won just 1 or 2 races before
13/18 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
12/18 – Had at least 3 previous career runs
12/18 – Never raced at Newbury
11/18 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
11/18 – Favourites unplaced
9/18 – Won over 7f before
9/18 – Won their last race
7/18 – Foaled in February
7/18 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
5/18 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/18 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
1/18 – Winning favourites
BEST BET: STRIKING STAR
DANGER: CARAGIO
2.25 – Virgin Bet St Simon Stakes (Registered As The St Simon) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV4
18/19 – Aged 5 or younger
17/19 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
17/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/19 – Had won at least twice before
16/19 – Had at least 4 runs that season
14/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/19 – Rated 106 or higher
12/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Had run at Newbury before (5 won)
11/19 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
10/19 – Placed horses from stall 6
7/19 – Winners from stalls 6 or 8
6/19 – Won by a filly or mare
6/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Trained by William Haggas (3 of last 10)
3/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding
1/19 – Winners from stall 1
Euchen Glen (9/2) won the race in 2020
Note: 2018 running was a dead-heat
BEST BET: HAMISH
DANGER: PASSION AND GLORY
Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends ITV/RacingTV)
2.05 – 888Sport Is Made To Play Handicap Chase Cl2 3m1f ITV4
14/15 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting market
13/15 – Won over at least 3m previously
12/15 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
11/15 – First run of the season
10/15 – Rated 134 or higher
10/15 – Irish bred winners
10/15 – Favourites unplaced
9/15 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
8/15 – Had won at Cheltenham previously
7/15 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
7/15 – Unplaced in their last race
5/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
1/15 – Winning Favourites
Definite Plan (9/2) won the race in 2021
The Hollow Ginge was 2nd in 2021
BEST BET: THE HOLLOW GINGE
DANGER: CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK
2.40 – Masterson Holdings Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV4
9/13 – Having their first run of the new jumps season
9/13 – Had won 2 or less times over hurdles
8/13 – Placed in their last race
7/13 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
7/13 – Carried 10-12 in weight
5/13 – Irish bred winners
5/13 – Favourites placed
3/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
No winning favourite in last 8 runnings
BEST BET: PIED PIPER
DANGER: KNIGHT SALUTE
3.15 – 888Sport Handicap Chase (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV4
Only 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Aged between 6 or 8 years-old
7/7 – Last race 6 months or more ago
7/7 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Had run at the track before
6/7 – Favourites placed (top three)
6/7 – Won between 2-4 times over fences
5/7 – Carried 11-1 or more
5/7 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
4/7 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/7 – Rated between 140-147
3/7 – French bred
3/7 – Winning favourites
3/7 – Won last time out
2/7 – Trained by Harry Whittington
Before Midnight (2/1 fav) won the race in 2021
BEST BET: EDITEUR DU GITE
DANGER: CLEAR THE RUNWAY
3.50 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 2m7f208y ITV4
10/13 – Priced 17/2 or bigger in the betting
10/13 – Had run at Cheltenham before (4 winners)
9/13 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
8/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/13 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
8/13 – Last ran 6 month+ ago
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
6/13 – Irish Bred
5/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Mare winners
2/13 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Winning favourites
Kansas City Chief (20/1) won the race in 2021
BEST BET: BOTOX HAS
DANGER: AN TAILLIUR
