More LIVE ITV action on Saturday 8th October for day two of the Newmarket Dubai Future Champions meeting, plus there is also LIVE racing from York. Plenty to get stuck into again with the ultra-competitive Cesarewitch Handicap one of the key betting races of the flat turf season, while the race is supported by the Autumn Stakes & the Group One Dewhurst Stakes, where we get to see some of the stars of the future.
Did you know? 14 of the last 20 Cesarewitch Handicap winners were aged 5 or older.
As mentioned, ITV cameras are also at York to take in three races, with the feature being the Coral Sprint Trophy.
So as always – here at RACING AHEAD – we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle, plus our verdicts on each race.
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1.50 – Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV
15/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
14/15 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
14/15 – Won no more than twice before
13/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/15 – Had won over at least 1m before
11/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Drawn in stalls 2-5 (inc)
10/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Came from stalls 2 or 3
6/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ran at Leicester last time out
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Trained by the Hannon yard
3/15 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
1/15 – Winners from stall 1
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
Irish-trained winners have won 3 of the last 7
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: FLYING HONOURS
RACING AHEAD DANGER: BATEMANS BAY
2.25 – Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV
16/17 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
16/17 – Had won over at least 7f before
15/17 – Had raced at least twice before
14/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/17 – Placed favourites
14/17 – Won between 1-2 times before
12/17 – Won last time out
13/17 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Foaled in Feb or March
11/17 – Irish bred
6/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Godolphin winners
3/17 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (3 of the last 5)
3/17 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/17 – Ridden by William Buick (4 of the last 7)
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 15 winners came between stalls 3-5
2 of the last 5 winners came from stall 9
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has NEVER won this race.
Note: From 2009 back the race was staged at ASCOT, while the 2005 running was at Salisbury
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: SILVER KNOTT
RACING AHEAD DANGER: EPICTETUS
3.00 – Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV
20/20 – Raced at least 3 times that season
18/20 – Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley)
18/20 – Placed in their last race
15/20 – Won over 7f previously
15/20 – Favourites placed
14/20 – Won at least 3 times previously
14/20 – Won their last race
14/20 – Won a Group race previously
13/20 – Raced at either Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or the Curragh (9) last time out
13/20 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/20 – Won by an Irish-based stable
10/20 – Favourites that won
8/20 – Placed horses that came from stall 2
6/20 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
6/20 – Returned 20/1 or bigger
6/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (6 wins in total)
6/20 – Finished in the top 2 in the 2000 Guineas the following season (3 won both)
5/20 – Trained by Jim Bolger
5/20 – Ridden by Kevin Manning
3/20 – Godolphin-owned winners (3 of the last 10)
2/20 – Won the Epsom Derby the following season
1/20 – Winners that came from stall 1
The Irish have won 11 of the last 16 runnings
3 of the last 12 winners came from stall 3
Aidan O’Brien has trained 5 of the last 9 winners
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: NOSTRUM
RACING AHEAD DANGER: CHALDEAN
3.40 – Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV
19/20 – Aged 4 or older
16/20 – Carried 9-2 or less
15/20 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
15/20 – Had run within the last 2 months
14/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
14/20 – Finished 4th or better last time out
14/20 – Aged 5 or older
12/20 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
11/20 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
11/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/20 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
11/20 – Had run at the track before
11/20 – Won by a NH trainer
9/20 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
9/20 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
9/20 – Placed favourites
8/20 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
5/20 – Winning mares
4/20 – Winning favourites
3/20 – Winners from stall 1
3/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 4 winners)
3/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/20 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/20 – Trained by Brian Meehan
2/20 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 21/1
Just 4 winning favourites since 1993
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: RUN FOR OSCAR
RACING AHEAD DANGER: ZOFFEE
York Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
2.05 – Coral Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV
19/19– Had raced within the last 4 weeks
18/19 – Had won between 1 and 3 times before
16/19 – Had 4 or more runs that season
15/19 – Foaled in March or later
14/19 – Had never raced at York before
13/19 – Had won over 6f before
13/19 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
10/19 – Placed favourites
10/19 – Unplaced last time out
8/19 – Ran at either Redcar (6) or Newbury (2) last time out
5/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Filly winners
4/19 – Winners from stall 2
3/19 – Placed horses from stall 1
3/19 – Trained by Tim Easterby
3/19 – Ridden by David Allan
The horse from stall 6 has won 5 of the last 12 runnings
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: ALPHA CAPTURE
RACING AHEAD DANGER: BOLT ACTION
2.40 – Coral ‘Beaten-By-A-Length’ Free Bet Handicap Cl2 1m2f88y ITV
Just 9 previous runnings
8/9 – Rated between 95-103
8/9 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
8/9 – Won over at least 1m2f before
7/9 – Aged 3 years-old
6/9 – Didn’t win last time out
6/9 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
6/9 – Carried 9-0 or more
5/9 – Unplaced last time out
4/9 – Had run at the track before
4/9 – Ridden by Franny Norton (2) or Adam Kirby (2)
4/9 – Irish bred
2/9 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 6 winners came from stall 8
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: WHAT’S THE STORY
RACING AHEAD DANGER: SAGA
3.15 – Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV
19/19 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
19/19 – Had won at least 3 races before
18/19 – Had run at York before
18/19 – Had won a race over 6f before
17/19 – Had raced 6 or more times that season
14/19 – Aged 5 or younger
14/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/19 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
10/19 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Rated between 92 and 98
10/19 – Carried 9-2 or less
8/19 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
5/19 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/19 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (2 of the last 5 winners)
2/19 – Trained by Michael Dods
1/19 – Filly or mare winners
4 of the last 13 winners were ridden by a claiming apprentice
Gulliver (16/1) won the race in 2019 and 2020
Major Jumbo (12/1) won the race in 2018
Teruntum Star (10/1) won the race in 2017
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: LUCKY MAN
RACING AHEAD DANGER: BIELSA
