Some nice winners last week for the Saturday TV trends & tips so hoping for more of the same this weekend as the ITV cameras head to Newmarket, Ascot and Redcar to take in eight LIVE races.
At Redcar, we’ve got the Two-Year-Old Trophy as their feature contest, while at Newmarket the Group One Royal Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes centre stage – a race the French have won 5 times in the last 18 years. Then at Ascot, we’ve four more races that include the Cumberland Lodge and John Guest Bengough Stakes, plus the ultra-competitive Challenge Cup Handicap.
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get going!
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)
1.51 – Oakman Group Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV
17/17 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
17/17 – Won over 5f before
16/17 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Aged 5 or younger
12/17 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
13/17 – Rated 101 or higher
11/17 – Had won between 3-7 times before
9/17 – Unplaced last time out
8/17 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
9/17 – Raced at Newbury last time out
7/17 – Irish bred
3/17 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/17 – Trained by Michael Dods (3 of last 4 runnings)
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Winning favourites
8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
Tis Marvellous won the race in 2021
13 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 11 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: KING’S LYNN
RACING AHEAD DANGER: TIS MARVELLOUS
2.25 – Peroni Nastro Azzurro Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV
18/19 – Finished fourth or better last time out
17/19 – Placed favourites
16/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
16/19 – Had won over 1m4f before
15/19 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/19 – Won at Listed or Group class before
14/19 – Had raced at the course before (7 won)
12/19 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
12/19 – Had 5 or more runs that season
12/19 – Had won 4 or more times before
10/19 – Won last time out
10/19 – Favourites to win
6/19 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 7)
2/19 – Trained by Owen Burrows (2 of last 4)
1/19 – Filly or mare winners
12 of the last 13 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 8 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: HAMISH
RACING AHEAD DANGER: CRESTA
3.00 – John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV
13/13 – Won over 6f previously
13/13 – Officially rated 100 or higher
11/13 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
10/13 – Won 4 or more times previously
8/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/13 – Raced 6 or more times that season
5/13 – Won their previous race
4/13 – Favourites to win
3/13 – Returned a double-figure price
2/13 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
2/13 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2 of the last 4 winners came from stalls 6
8 of the last 9 winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
Vadream (6/1) won the race last year
Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 6 of the last 10 runnings (3 wins)
Horses from stall 5 and 7 have won 6 of the last 10 runnings
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: ROHAAN
RACING AHEAD DANGER: VADREAM
3.36 – Peroni Nastro Azzurro Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV
18/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
16/19 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
16/19 – Won over 7f previously
13/19 – Had raced within the last 30 days
14/19 – Raced at Ascot previously
12/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/19 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
9/19 – Raced 7 or more times that season
8/19 – Returned a double-figure price
8/19 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
6/19 – Raced at Ayr last time out
6/19 – Favourites that won
2/19 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/19 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/19 – Won their previous race
0/19 – Filly or mare winners
9 of the last 11 winners carried 9-1 or more in weight
The last 11 winners were aged 6 or younger
7 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 13 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
4 of the last 13 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
2 of the last 3 winners came from stall 17
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 15/2
Accidental Agent won the race in 2017
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: BLUE FOR YOU
RACING AHEAD DANGER: RHOSCOLYN
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.31 – British EBF Premier Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV
Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Favourites placed in the first three
5/6 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
5/6 – Didn’t win last time out
4/6 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Won just once before
3/6 – Had won over 1m2f before
2/6 – Winning favourites
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: I’LL BE THERE
RACING AHEAD DANGER: PERSIST
2.06 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV
Just 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Carried between 8-4 and 8-11 in weight
7/7 – Foaled Feb or later
6/7 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/7 – Rated between 79-85
5/7 – Won from a double-figure draw
5/7 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
5/7 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
4/7 – Won just one before
4/7 – First 3 home came from double-figure draws
1/7 – Winning favourites
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: UNION COURT
RACING AHEAD DANGER: AMICHI
2.42 – Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV
16/18 – Had won over at least 1m before 16/18 – Previous Group winners
13/18 – Won between 3-5 times before
13/18 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
12/18 – Rated between 113 and 119
12/18 – Previous Group One winners
9/18 – Aged 3 years-old
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 co)
6/18 – Raced at Deauville last time out
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – French-trained winners
5/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
14 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Horses from stall 1 have won 5 of the last 16 runnings
Horses from stalls 1 (4) or 7 (2) or 9 (2) have won 8 of the last 12
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: SAFFRON BEACH
RACING AHEAD DANGER: LAUREL
Redcar Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
3.21 – William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV
17/20 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
16/20 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
14/20 – Had won 1 or 2 previous races
14/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/20 – Foaled in March or later
10/20 – Had won over 6f before
10/20 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
8/20 – Unplaced favourites
6/20 – Filly winners
6/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/20 – Trained by Tim Easterby (4 wins in total)
2/20– Trained by Richard Fahey
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: BAREFOOT ANGEL
RACING AHEAD DANGER: COLD CASE
