Here at Racing Ahead we’ve got all the trends that matter ahead of the LIVE ITV races from the third day (Fri) of the York Dante Meeting, with the Group Two Yorkshire Cup the feature contest today.
York Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)
1.40 – Langleys Solicitors EBF Stallions Marygate Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4
14/15 – Had won over 5f before
14/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Won by a horse foaled in February or later
13/15 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
13/15 – Had won between 1-2 times before
13/15 – Won last time out
11/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Winners from stall 9
6/15 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 6-11 (inc)
Richard Fahey has trained 2 of the last 9 winners
Michael Bell has trained 2 of the last 12 winners
2019 Winner: Good Vibes (10/1)
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A tricky race to get going here with a lot of lightly-raced 2 year-olds on show. With 13 of the last 15 winners from stalls 4 or higher, then those drawn low here – Where’s Diana, Russellinthebushes and Instinction are overlooked. Having won between 1-2 times before is another trend to look for, as is being foaled in Feb or later. Strangely, horses from stall 9 have a good record – winning 7 of the last 15, so SIENNA BONNIE is the first horse to have on your radar. This Jonathan Portman juvenile was a good winner at Bath (8 ½ lengths) last time out on her second start and certainly showed a lot of pace that day. Andrea Atzeni is a plus in the saddle too and even though the ground is likely to be a bit softer than that recent win, she still looks a decent player here. Of the rest, May Blossom and Canonized, with Ryan Moore riding, were also all nice winners last time out and have to enter calculations. Of that bunch though, the David O’Meara yard are 0-from-32 with their 2 year-olds at the track, so their May Blossom has that stat to overcome. Bellarena Lady is another of interest. This Ed Dunlop runner has already had two runs and got off the mark last time at Leicester in good fashion. The yard are 1-from-3 with their juveniles here and her recent win suggested there was more in the locker – winning by 2 ¼ lengths and it could have been more. But the other I like is CRAZYLAND, who actually beat Sienna Bonnie on debut at Windsor last month. This Clive Cox runner would have learned a lot from that and has also had 4 weeks to get over that run. Plus, draw 6 looks fine as 10 of the last 11 winners have come between stalls 6-10.
2.10 – Oaks Farm Stables Fillies´ Stakes (Registered As The Michael Seely Memorial Stakes) (Listed) Cl1 1m ITV4
14/14 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
14/14 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
14/14 – Won between 1-2 times in the past
11/14 – Had won over at least 7f before
10/14 – Placed 5th or better last time out
9/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
7/14 – Horses from stall 1 placed
7/14 – Raced at either Newmarket (5) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Ridden by William Buick
2/14 – Ridden by James Doyle
2/14 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2019 Winners: Magnetic Charm (7/1)
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Some promising milers on show here. Jockey’s Ryan Moore, William Buick, James Doyle and Andrea Atzeni has all done well in this race in recent years – between them they’ve won 7 of the last 8 runnings! Moore rides the Stoute-trained Ville De Grace, who wasn’t beaten far in the G3 Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury last time and will find this drop into Listed company easier. She should also enjoy the step up to a mile, if her breeding is to be trusted. The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin have a strong hand too, with three runners – Creative Flair, Divine Light and Kestenna. A case can be made for all the trio, but with Kestenna beaten at odds-on last time out that would be a concern. Divine Light didn’t get the best of runs last time out (6th) so had an excuse, while CREATIVE FLAIR was a nice winner at Ascot last time out over this trip and also holds an entry in the G2 Ribblesdale Stakes. She’s taken to come out best of the Godolphin runners. Love Is You is another to note in the betting, but the second pick of interest is SNOW LANTERN. This Hannon runner caught the eye last time out when winning a maiden at Newbury over this trip. She looked to have a bit up her sleeve that day, while the yard won this in 2014 with a similar sort.
2.40 – Matchbook ‘Best Value’ Exchange Handicap Cl2 1m2f88y ITV4
18/18 – Aged 7 or younger
17/18 – Had run over 1m2f before
15/18 – Didn’t win their last race
14/18 – Came from stall 5 or higher
14/18 – Won over at least 1m2f before
13/18 – Carried 8-12 or MORE
12/18 – Had a previous run that season
10/18 – Won by a 4 year-old (including 7 of the last 12 years)
9/18 – Finished third or better last time out
6/18 – Had run at York before
6/18 – Won by the favourite
3/18 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor (2007, 2008, 2009)
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/18 – Won by trainer John Gosden
2/18 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (last 2 runnings)
2/18 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
12 of the last 14 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
2019 Winner: UAE Prince (15/8)
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A tricky handicap here. PIVOINE (e/w) is the only CD winner in the field though and might be worth chancing. This 7 year-old hasn’t won since winning here in July 19, but that success came off a mark of 104 and he’s now rated 92. Therefore, a drop of 12lbs is starting to make him look dangerous and a recent run at Chelmsford would have blown away the cobwebs. Yes, he was last of seven that day, but was only beaten 3 ¾ lengths. Is down another 4lbs from that run and should be much fitter for it. Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute team-up with Satono Japan, who is lightly-raced with only four career outings. He was actually two places ahead of Pivoine last time out in that same Chelmsford race, so is another to respect. United Front will draw the eye with several good runs next to it’s name, but the Mick Appleby yard are only 2-from-43 with their older horses here and that would be a worry. Blue Cap represents the 2018 winning yard of David Menuisier and is another for the shortlist. But the other of interest is the Haggas runner – IRISH ADMIRAL. This 4 year-old made light work his opposition at Wolverhampton last time out on debut for the yard and looks the sort to improve further now stepped up in trip. The yard also boast a decent 19% strike-rate with their 4+ year-olds at the track – Kevin Stott takes the ride.
3.10 – Matchbook ‘Best Value’ Yorkshire Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 1m6f ITV4
16/16 – Came from stall 7 or lower
15/16 – Didn’t win last time out
15/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
15/16 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
15/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Aged 5 or older
13/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/16 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/16 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
9/16 – Had run at York before
8/16 – Horses from stall 7 placed in the top 3
7/16 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
7/16 – Came from stall 4 or 7
7/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/16 – Ran at Newbury last time out
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
Stradivarius has won the last two runnings
2019 Winner: Stradivarius (4/5 fav)
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: No Stradivarius this year, who has won the last two runnings. That will give Nayef Road a big chance as this Mark Johnston runner has finished in behind ‘Strady’ many times in the past, including last month at Ascot in the Sagaro Stakes. He’s rated 115 and that’s the same as the Aidan O’Brien runner – Santiago – so there shouldn’t be a lot between them. However, despite landing the Irish Derby last season, Santiago, hasn’t progressed since losing his next three and was turned over at odds on at Navan last month too – that would be the concern. Spanish Mission and Wells Farhh Go are decent on their day and in the right grade, but the form horse here is another Mark Johnston runner – SIR RON PRESTLEY. This 5 year-old has improved bundles over the last season and returned this term with top wins at Nottingham and Newmarket. He was gutsy in the G2 Jockey Club Stakes at HQ last time out and having won over 1m6f in the past the step up in trip here will be fine. It won’t be easy giving 3lbs away to the likes of Nayef Road and Santiago, but he looks the most solid at the moment and is taken to continue his winning run.
4.15 – Yorkshire Equine Practice Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-95) 5f ITV4
9/9 – Won between 1-2 times before
8/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Had won over 5f before
7/9 – Unplaced favourites
7/9 – Rated between 78-87 (inc)
7/9 – Returned 8/1 or bigger
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
6/9 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
6/9 – Drawn in stalls 8 or higher
5/9 – Irish bred
4/9 – Had run at York before
3/9 – Ran at Ripon last time out
2/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by David O’Meara
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 12.5/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Trainer David O’Meara is only 2-from-45 with his 3 year-olds at the track, but he’s also won this race twice in recent years so his runners – Nomadic Empire and Country Carnival – have to be considered. The Roger Varian runner – Hey Mr – looks interesting, but my only slight niggle with him is that he’s been running against the same horse – Imperium Blue, who also goes here – in recent races so I’m not sure how deep the form is. That said, he’s progressing well and won’t mind any rain if it comes. Fighter Pilot is another that should go well, while there should be more to come from the unexposed Roman Encounter. But the two I like here are TWEET TWEET and the already mentioned NOMADIC EMPIRE. The former was a nice 2 ½ length winner at Thirsk last month – beating Bedford Flyer – that day and even though a 10lb hike in the ratings for that looks a tad harsh, she’s clearly an improving sprinter. Nomadic Empire brings a bit of class to the race, but having contested Group and Listed contests last season should find this drop in grade right up his street. A recent run at Sandown would have blown away the cobwebs and any ease in the ground is not a concern – he’s a horse with good form on a range of ground from good-to-firm to soft.
