In this day and age more and more punters are looking at statistical data rather than ‘reading the form’. The regular ‘punter’ has also changed, with a higher percentage becoming far more professional in their approach to gambling.
You may well have heard the quote ‘Invest don’t gamble’ and how very true this is.
I make good money from Horse Racing but it has been a very long road. I often have friendly disagreements with friends and family who ‘gamble’. They see it as a bit of fun, ‘A cheeky fiver accumulator here and there is just a bit of fun’ they say
However, for me there is absolutely no fun in losing money, even if it is just a fiver. Every horse I bet on is an investment. I know my numbers well, I know in the long term they will show me a profit. What I do is ‘invest’ in Horse Racing.
People who say that using statistics or systems & angles don’t work are simply wrong.
Value comes in all sorts of disguises. To some finding a 20/1 winner is value, for others finding a 1/3 winner is value. It all depends on the individual and what you are looking for, what you yourself are happy with.
I personally am happy to back selections at any price. There have been many occasions where I have felt that 10/1 on a horse offers no value. But on occasions finding 1/3 on a horse has in my eyes been value.
Last week we briefly touched on ‘trends’ data to influence possible advices in your daily selection process. Our trends data at nwracing.co.uk finds us many big priced winners. This I guess would be called an angle or a system. The strike rate to how we find winners using trends data is fairly low at around 18%. This of course means that 18 selections of every 100 win. So to make a profit in the long term our average priced winner needs to be over 5/1+
For example –
100 selections
82 lose = Loss of -£82 (to £1 level stakes)
18 win @ 5/1 = Profit of £90
£8 Profit
8% ROI (Return on Investment) Try getting that as an investment with your bank!
For me personally this reflects value and a significant return on my outlay.
Last week we gave three selections that we felt offered value simply using trends data.
2.05 – Mijhaar (Best price 16/1 Boylesports) 3rd
2.40 – Sam Winner (Best price 4/1 General) Won
3.15 – Rebel Rebellion (Best price 15/2 Coral) Unplaced
So we received one winner from three selections. If backing all three selections to £10 stakes we would have walked away with a profit of £20. But more importantly a ROI (Return on Investment) of 67%
You will of noticed that our winner fell under the 5/1 price that is needed to make this ‘angle’ profitable in the long term. This is fine of course as long as the average price is 5/1+ over the course of any period.
During the week the trends angle gave us just one additional selection (correct up to 11/12/14). However this was a nice priced winner.
08/12/14 2.20 Musselburgh – Waltz Darling WON 16.49 BSP
So once again following trends and putting the data in to a strategy pays dividends.
Hopefully today we have at least reminded you that strategies, systems, angles or whatever you wish to call them!
THEY DO WORK.
Continuing on the same vain from last week with our trend’s selections. Today’s qualifiers are as follows…
12.50 Un Ace (9/2)
1.25 Bold Henry (5/2)
3.10 Vaniteux (5/2)
3.45 Volnay De Thaix (2/1)
*Prices are the best available at 09:05hrs BST.
Have a great day.
